Nephyr Risk
Size prediction-market positions with Kelly criteria, expected value, and drawdown rules from your coding agent.
Overview
Nephyr Risk is an MCP server for the Operate phase that applies Kelly sizing, EV calculation, and drawdown protection to prediction-market positions.
What is this MCP server?
- Kelly-style position sizing for prediction markets
- Expected value (EV) calculation for proposed trades
- Drawdown protection and bankroll guardrails
- stdio MCP transport via uvx from PyPI (v0.1.1)
- Pairs with Nephyr wallet and weather signals for full stack
- Server version 0.1.1 on PyPI (identifier nephyr-risk)
- stdio transport via uvx runtimeHint
- Three-tool Nephyr suite companion (risk, wallets, weather)
What problem does it solve?
Solo traders size prediction-market bets from gut feel and blow up bankrolls when variance hits.
Who is it for?
Indie builders automating or assisting Polymarket-style trading who want bankroll math inside the agent loop.
Skip if: Builders who only need wallet copy-trading without quantitative sizing, or anyone avoiding prediction markets entirely.
What do I get? / Deliverables
Your agent returns disciplined stake sizes, EV checks, and drawdown-aware limits you can apply before every order.
- Agent-computed stake sizes and EV assessments
- Drawdown-aware sizing recommendations in chat
- Repeatable risk checks before trade execution
Recommended MCP Servers
Journey fit
How it compares
MCP risk-math integration for agents, not a hosted brokerage or charting terminal.
Common Questions / FAQ
Who is Nephyr Risk for?
Solo and indie developers who use AI coding agents to trade or research prediction markets and want Kelly, EV, and drawdown logic on demand.
When should I use Nephyr Risk?
Use it before placing or scaling positions, after a losing streak when revising stake rules, or when validating that a market price still offers positive expected value.
How do I add Nephyr Risk to my agent?
Register the stdio MCP server (PyPI package nephyr-risk, runtimeHint uvx) in your Claude Code, Cursor, or compatible client MCP config and restart the session.