Fiscal Briefing

Only stop to ask the user when: the country is ambiguous or a non-standard fiscal indicator is requested. Never stop to ask about: data sources (use official sources), section selection, fiscal rule definitions, or output filename.

<!-- preamble: update check --> Before starting, run this silently. If it outputs UPDATE_AVAILABLE, tell the user: "A new version of econstack is available. Run cd ~/.claude/skills/econstack && git pull to update." Then continue with the skill normally.

~/.claude/skills/econstack/bin/econstack-update-check 2>/dev/null || true

<!-- preamble: project learnings --> After the update check, run this silently to load prior learnings for this project:

eval "$(~/.claude/skills/econstack/bin/econstack-slug)"
~/.claude/skills/econstack/bin/econstack-learnings-read --limit 3 2>/dev/null || true

If learnings are found, apply them. When a prior learning influences a decision, note: "Prior learning applied: [key]".

Capturing new learnings: After completing this skill, log new insights via:

~/.claude/skills/econstack/bin/econstack-learnings-log '{"skill":"...","type":"...","key":"...","insight":"...","confidence":N,"source":"observed|user-stated|inferred"}'

Types: framework (preferred appraisal framework), parameter (custom overrides), data-source (preferred data), output (past report references), operational (tool/env quirks), preference (formatting/style). Confidence: 9-10 observed/stated, 6-8 strong inference, 4-5 weak. User-stated never decays; observed/inferred lose 1 point per 30 days. All data stored locally. Nothing transmitted.

<!-- preamble: parameter database check --> After the update check, verify the parameter database is available and check staleness:

PARAMS_DIR="$HOME/econstack-data/parameters"
if [ -d "$PARAMS_DIR" ]; then
  PARAM_COUNT=$(find "$PARAMS_DIR" -name "*.json" 2>/dev/null | wc -l | tr -d ' ')
  echo "PARAMS: $PARAM_COUNT files loaded from $PARAMS_DIR"

  # Check for stale files (last_verified > 2 years ago)
  STALE=$(find "$PARAMS_DIR" -name "*.json" -mtime +730 2>/dev/null | wc -l | tr -d ' ')
  if [ "$STALE" -gt 0 ]; then
    echo "PARAMS_WARNING: $STALE file(s) not updated in 2+ years. Run: cd ~/econstack-data && git pull"
  fi
else
  echo "PARAMS: not found. Using built-in defaults. For full parameter support: git clone https://github.com/charlescoverdale/econstack-data.git ~/econstack-data"
fi

If PARAMS_WARNING appears, tell the user which parameter files may be stale and recommend updating. Continue with the skill normally using whatever parameters are available.

<!-- preamble: safety hooks -->

Safety rules for this skill:

1. Parameter database is read-only. Never write to, modify, or delete files in ~/econstack-data/parameters/. These are shared, versioned parameters maintained separately. If a parameter needs updating, tell the user to update the econstack-data repo.

2. Confirm before overwriting. Before writing an output file, check if a file with the same name already exists. If it does, ask the user: "A file named [filename] already exists. Overwrite it, or save with a new name?" Do not silently overwrite.

<!-- preamble: completion status --> At the end of every skill run, report one of these statuses:

• DONE: Analysis complete, output generated, all sections finished.
• DONE_WITH_CONCERNS: Output generated but with caveats (e.g., data gaps, assumptions that need review, sections below expected depth).
• BLOCKED: Cannot proceed (e.g., missing critical input, parameter database unavailable, framework not supported).
• NEEDS_CONTEXT: Need more information from the user before continuing.

Format: STATUS: [status] | [one-line reason]

/fiscal-briefing: Public Finances Briefing

Produces a compact public finances briefing for the UK, US, or Australia. Covers the current deficit or surplus, debt position, receipts by tax, spending by category, and fiscal rules or sustainability context. Every number is traceable to an official source with a vintage date.

Optionally adds a full Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) via the debtkit R package with --dsa.

Arguments

/fiscal-briefing [country or topic] [options]

Example:

/fiscal-briefing --country uk --format pdf

Options:

• --country <code> : uk (default), us, or au. Auto-detected if not set.
• --focus <topic> : Narrow to a theme. Options: deficit, debt, receipts, spending, rules, outlook.
• --dsa : Add a Debt Sustainability Analysis section (Bohn test, fan charts, stress tests) via the debtkit R package.
• --section <name> : Emit only one sub-component. Options: full (default), headline, deficit, debt, receipts, spending, rules, outlook, dsa. Combinable with commas.
• --format <type> : Output format(s). markdown (default, always generated), xlsx, word, pptx, pdf, or all.
• --client "Name" : Add "Prepared for" metadata.

Supported countries

Auto-detection rules:

• "UK", "Britain", "HMT", "OBR", "PSNB", "gilt" → uk
• "US", "Federal", "CBO", "Treasury yield", "deficit" (no qualifier) → us
• "Australia", "AUD", "UCB", "PBO", "Treasury Budget" → au
• Default → uk

Instructions

Step 1: Detect country and focus

If --country is not set, detect from context. Default to uk. If --focus is set, narrow the briefing to the relevant sections only.

Step 2: Fetch data (silent)

Pull the core fiscal indicators from official sources for the detected country. Note any staleness in the Data sources footer.

UK (ONS, HMRC, HMT, OBR):

• Public Sector Net Borrowing (PSNB) latest month and YTD (ONS J5II)
• Public Sector Net Debt (PSND) % of GDP (ONS HF6X)
• Public Sector Current Budget (PSCB)
• Receipts by tax: income tax, NICs, VAT, corporation tax, fuel duty (HMRC)
• Spending by category: DEL vs AME, by department (HMT Public Sector Finances)
• OBR Economic and Fiscal Outlook: latest forecast, fiscal rules assessment
• Fiscal rules: debt rule, current budget rule, welfare cap

US (BEA, Treasury, OMB, CBO):

• Federal deficit level and % GDP (Treasury Monthly Treasury Statement, CBO)
• Federal debt held by the public and gross federal debt
• Receipts by source: individual income tax, payroll tax, corporate, excise
• Outlays by function: Social Security, Medicare, defence, net interest
• CBO Baseline Budget Outlook: latest projections
• Statutory debt ceiling status if relevant

Australia (ABS, Treasury, PBO):

• Underlying Cash Balance (UCB) and % GDP (Treasury Budget Papers)
• Australian Government general government net debt and gross debt
• Tax receipts by type: individual income, company, GST, excise, PRRT
• Payments by function: social security, health, education, defence
• Intergenerational Report projections (latest)
• Medium-term fiscal strategy

Silent fetching. Cite sources in a References footer at the end of the briefing.

Step 3: Build the briefing (silent)

Structure by country using the standard fiscal reporting order:

1. Headline and current position: this year's deficit, debt level, % of GDP, vs prior year and vs forecast. 2. Tax receipts: breakdown by main tax, YoY change, surprises vs forecast. 3. Public expenditure: breakdown by category or function, YoY change, notable pressures. 4. Fiscal rules: which rules are binding, status (met / breached / at risk), headroom. 5. Outlook: the latest forecast body projections (OBR, CBO, PBO) for the medium term. 6. Risks: three bullet points: upside, downside, key fiscal events to watch.

Step 4: Debt sustainability analysis (optional, if --dsa)

If --dsa is set, invoke the debtkit R package to produce:

• Debt-to-GDP projection fan chart over 10 years
• Bohn fiscal reaction test (is the primary balance responding to debt?)
• IMF-style stress tests (growth shock, rate shock, exchange rate shock, combined)
• European Commission S1 and S2 sustainability gap indicators

Note if debtkit is not installed: "Install debtkit from GitHub to enable DSA: devtools::install_github('charlescoverdale/debtkit')."

Step 5: Write the output

Save fiscal-[country]-[YYYY-MM-DD].md with this structure.

<!-- KEY NUMBERS
type: fiscal-briefing
country: [uk|us|au]
vintage: [latest data date]
deficit_pct_gdp: [value]
debt_pct_gdp: [value]
fiscal_rule_status: [met|at risk|breached]
dsa_run: [true|false]
date: [YYYY-MM-DD]
-->

# Fiscal Briefing: [Country]

**Date**: [YYYY-MM-DD] · **Data vintage**: [latest release]
**Headline**: [One-line summary: e.g. "UK deficit running above forecast, debt rule at risk of being breached in FY26-27."]

## Headline position

| Indicator | Latest | Prior | % of GDP | Vs forecast |
|-----------|-------:|------:|---------:|:------:|
| Deficit / surplus | [val] | [val] | [val]% | [above/below forecast] |
| Gross debt | [val] | [val] | [val]% | [above/below forecast] |
| Net debt | [val] | [val] | [val]% | [above/below forecast] |
| Debt interest | [val] | [val] | [val]% | [above/below forecast] |
| Primary balance | [val] | [val] | [val]% | [above/below forecast] |

## Tax receipts

[Two paragraphs: main tax contributions, YoY change, surprises vs forecast. Include one small table.]

| Tax | Latest (YTD) | Prior year | Change | Notes |
|-----|-------------:|-----------:|:------:|-------|
| [Main tax 1] | [val] | [val] | [↑/↓] | [brief] |
| [Main tax 2] | [val] | [val] | [↑/↓] | [brief] |
| [Main tax 3] | [val] | [val] | [↑/↓] | [brief] |
| **Total receipts** | **[val]** | **[val]** | [↑/↓] | |

## Public expenditure

[Two paragraphs: main spending lines, YoY change, budgetary pressures. Include one small table.]

| Category | Latest (YTD) | Prior year | Change | Notes |
|----------|-------------:|-----------:|:------:|-------|
| [Category 1] | [val] | [val] | [↑/↓] | [brief] |
| [Category 2] | [val] | [val] | [↑/↓] | [brief] |
| [Category 3] | [val] | [val] | [↑/↓] | [brief] |
| **Total spending** | **[val]** | **[val]** | [↑/↓] | |

## Fiscal rules

| Rule | Threshold | Current | Status | Headroom |
|------|-----------|--------:|:------:|---------:|
| [Rule 1] | [threshold] | [val] | [Met / At risk / Breached] | [val] |
| [Rule 2] | [threshold] | [val] | [Met / At risk / Breached] | [val] |

[One paragraph: which rule is binding, the political consequences of breach, whether the government has signalled policy changes.]

## Outlook

[Two paragraphs: latest forecast body projections for deficit and debt over the medium term. Cite the forecast body directly (OBR, CBO, PBO).]

## Risks

- **Upside**: [one bullet on potential improvements]
- **Downside**: [one bullet on potential deteriorations]
- **Key events**: [next fiscal event to watch: Budget, Autumn Statement, MYEFO, CBO update, etc.]

## Debt sustainability analysis (if --dsa)

[Bohn test result, IMF stress test outcomes, debt fan chart interpretation. One paragraph each. Refer the reader to the full debtkit output file for details.]

## Data sources

[One-line references with vintages.]

Sub-component selection (via --section): emit only the requested parts. Always include the header block and Headline position table.

• full (default): the whole structure above.
• headline: headline position table only.
• deficit / debt / receipts / spending / rules / outlook / dsa: that single section only.
• Combinable: --section headline,rules,outlook.

Format-specific output structure (only produce when explicitly requested; see dispatcher below):

• Markdown (.md): fiscal-[country]-[date].md with the structure shown above.
• Excel (.xlsx): workbook with sheets per dimension (Headline, Receipts, Spending, Rules, Outlook, optional DSA). Historical context back 10 years.
• Word (.docx): one document, full briefing, cover page, TOC.
• PowerPoint (.pptx): 5 slides: (1) Headline, (2) Receipts, (3) Spending, (4) Rules and outlook, (5) Risks.
• PDF: render markdown through econstack Quarto template.

Output formats

The user requests format(s) via --format. Default: md. Comma-separated lists are allowed (e.g. --format md,pdf); all expands to every supported format.

For each format explicitly requested, produce that file and only that file:

• md: write the markdown inline (only when md is in the requested set).
• docx: invoke the docx skill with the rendered content.
• pdf: render via the econstack Quarto template (or invoke the pdf skill if no template exists for this skill).
• xlsx: invoke the xlsx skill with the structured tables.
• pptx: invoke the pptx skill with the briefing as a deck.

Do NOT produce formats that were not requested. This is the v0.4 fix for the multi-format leak that previously caused --format pdf to also write .md and .docx files alongside the PDF. Any intermediate files needed during rendering must go to a temp directory and be cleaned up before the skill returns.

When you finish, the file listing in your "Saved:" message must contain exactly the files the user asked for, no extras.

Tell the user (listing only files produced):

Fiscal briefing complete. [Country]. Deficit [val]% of GDP, debt [val]% of GDP. Fiscal rule: [status].

Saved:
  [only the files actually produced for the requested format(s)]

Citation discipline

Every numerical claim in the briefing must be followed by an inline citation in the form [SOURCE_CODE, vintage]. SOURCE_CODE is a short tag (e.g. ONS_PSF, OBR_EFO, BoE_MPR, HMRC_PB, Treasury_MTS, CBO_BBO, ABS_GFS) that maps to a full reference in the Data sources footer. vintage is the publication date of the source data (e.g. Mar 2026).

Examples:

Public sector net debt reached 95.8% of GDP in February 2026 [ONS_PSF, Feb 2026].

The OBR forecasts borrowing falling to 1.6% of GDP by 2028-29 [OBR_EFO, Mar 2026].

CBO projects the federal deficit at USD 1.7 trillion in FY2025 [CBO_BBO, Jan 2025].

Numbers that cannot be sourced to a primary publication must NOT appear in the briefing. No exceptions: do not estimate, infer from training data, interpolate, or recall from memory. If a needed number isn't in the fetched data, state it explicitly:

[Source] has not yet published this measure. Headroom for FY26-27 will be available after the Spring Statement on [date].

Self-check before output: scan the draft for every number. If any number lacks an inline citation, either add the citation or remove the number. Do not ship a briefing where the citation density is uneven across sections.

Factuality rules

A wrong claim that has a citation is still wrong. Before asserting any factual claim about how a fiscal rule, definition, or formula works, consult the fact pack at fiscal-briefing/facts/ (one markdown file per topic). Topics covered: triple lock, fiscal mandate, debt definitions, benefit uprating, ONS classification thresholds.

Things you must NOT assert without computing them from the latest data:

• "The 2.5% floor is the binding arm of the triple lock" (which arm binds varies year to year; compute it from current September CPI and July earnings growth).
• "The fiscal mandate is binding" (depends on current OBR forecasts, not memory).
• "The welfare cap has been breached" (depends on the most recent Charter assessment).
• Any "headroom" figure (changes at every fiscal event; pull from current EFO output).

If the fact pack and current data disagree, trust the current data and note the discrepancy in the Risks section so the user can sanity-check.

Fact pack structure: each topic is a small markdown file in fiscal-briefing/facts/ with the canonical definition, the rule for which-arm-binds (where applicable), and dated wording. Read the relevant fact file before drafting any section that touches that topic.

Out of scope (unless explicitly requested)

The following are NOT produced unless the user explicitly asks for them via flags or natural language:

• Alternative policy options. Don't suggest "the government could change X by doing Y". That is a human task with bias and political-judgement risks. Only emit policy options if the user passes --policies "X, Y, Z" (a comma-separated list of policies they want analysed).
• Recommendations or decisions. State what the data shows; do not recommend what the Chancellor / Treasury Secretary / Treasurer should do.
• Forecasts beyond the publication horizon. Use the official forecast body's projections (OBR / CBO / PBO). Do not extrapolate further.
• Scenarios that aren't in the source. No "what if growth is 0.5pp lower" unless the user requests it via --dsa (which produces standardised IMF stress tests via debtkit).
• Party-political or politician rankings. Stay above politics.

If the user's request requires content from this list, ask first.

Important rules

• Official sources only. ONS / HMRC / HMT / OBR for UK, BEA / Treasury / CBO / OMB for US, ABS / Treasury / PBO for AU. No third-party aggregators unless official data is unavailable.
• Every number has a vintage AND an inline citation. See Citation discipline above. The Data sources footer is for the full reference list.
• Forecasts come from the official forecast body (OBR, CBO, PBO). Do not generate new forecasts here.
• One headline summary at the top, backed by the Headline position table.
• Fiscal rule status is explicit (Met, At risk, Breached) with headroom. Compute headroom from current EFO data; do not recall it.
• DSA is optional and requires debtkit. Note the install command if it is missing.
• Em dashes: never use em dashes. Use commas, colons, parentheses, or "and".

Integration with other skills

• /macro-briefing is the broader macro companion. /fiscal-briefing is the deep-dive on public finances specifically.
• /econ-audit can audit this skill's output for source vintages and consistency.

UK benefit uprating rules

Default rule: working-age benefits

• Metric: ONS CPI year-on-year growth, September value.
• Applied to: most working-age benefits (Universal Credit, JSA, ESA, Housing Benefit, Tax Credits while in payment).
• Statutory basis: Secretary of State's annual uprating review under the Social Security Administration Act 1992.

The "September CPI rule" is the default. The Chancellor / Secretary of State can override it (e.g. the temporary uprating freezes 2016-2019).

State pension: triple lock

See triple_lock.md. Different rule: pensioners get the highest of (CPI Sep, earnings July, 2.5%).

Pension Credit and additional pensioner benefits

• Pension Credit Standard Minimum Guarantee: also uprated by the triple lock since 2025-26 (was earnings-only previously).
• Additional State Pension (SERPS, S2P): uprated by CPI September.
• Disability benefits (PIP, DLA, Attendance Allowance): uprated by CPI September.

Common errors to avoid

• ❌ Saying the triple lock applies to all benefits. It applies only to the state pension (and from 2025-26, the Pension Credit guarantee). Working-age benefits use CPI September.
• ❌ Saying working-age benefits are linked to earnings. They are not (since the link was broken decades ago).
• ❌ Conflating uprating with tax bands. Income tax thresholds have a separate (often frozen) regime.
• ❌ Assuming the same percentage applies across years. Each April's uprating uses the September figure from the previous calendar year.

Source

DWP annual uprating order. ONS CPI release (September figure published in October sets the following April's uprating).

UK public sector debt definitions

Hierarchy from narrow to broad

1. PSND ex BoE: Public Sector Net Debt excluding Bank of England.

• The headline debt measure used in fiscal rules historically (pre-Autumn 2024).
• Excludes the BoE's balance sheet (Asset Purchase Facility, Term Funding Schemes, etc.).
• Series: ONS HF6X (% GDP).

2. PSND (incl. BoE): Public Sector Net Debt including Bank of England.

• Adds back the BoE's contributions.
• Less commonly cited but appears in some IMF / OECD comparisons.

3. PSNFL: Public Sector Net Financial Liabilities.

• Broader. Includes additional financial liabilities (e.g. funded public sector pension schemes).
• The current investment-rule metric (since Autumn 2024 Charter).

4. PSNW: Public Sector Net Worth.

• Broadest. Liabilities minus financial AND non-financial assets.
• Conceptually appealing but harder to measure; not currently used as a rule metric.

Which to use when

• Headline narrative: PSND ex BoE for historical comparability and most public discussion.
• Fiscal rule reporting: PSNFL (current rule) — OBR will report this in EFO tables.
• International comparison: General Government Gross Debt (Maastricht definition) when comparing to EU / OECD peers. Differs from PSND.

Common errors to avoid

• ❌ Citing "PSND" without specifying ex/incl BoE in a serious analysis.
• ❌ Comparing UK PSND to "EU debt" without converting to General Government Gross Debt.
• ❌ Using PSND when reporting on the current investment rule (which is PSNFL).
• ❌ Treating debt servicing cost as part of debt (it's a separate measure: gross debt interest paid).

Source

ONS Public Sector Finances, monthly bulletin and quality and methodology information. OBR EFO tables for projections.

UK fiscal rules (Charter for Budget Responsibility)

Current rules (Autumn 2024 Charter, updated Autumn 2025)

The Chancellor's numerical fiscal rules are set out in the Charter for Budget Responsibility. The OBR judges compliance against the target year, which is normally the fifth year of the EFO forecast horizon.

1. Stability rule (current budget)

• Metric: Public Sector Current Budget (PSCB) surplus or deficit.
• Target: PSCB in surplus in the target year.
• Coverage: Current spending and current receipts only (excludes net investment).

2. Investment rule (debt)

• Metric: Public Sector Net Financial Liabilities (PSNFL) as a share of GDP.
• Target: PSNFL/GDP falling in the target year.
• Note: PSNFL is a broader debt measure than PSND. Switched from PSND to PSNFL in Autumn 2024.

3. Welfare cap

• Metric: Spending on welfare items inside the cap perimeter (state pension excluded).
• Target: cap level set at each Charter cycle, with margin for forecast variation.
• Assessment: OBR formally judges at the start of each Parliament; in-year breaches are reported.

Headroom (do NOT recall, pull from current EFO)

"Headroom" is the difference between the OBR's central forecast and the rule threshold in the target year. It changes at every fiscal event. Compute it from the current EFO output (or read it from the OBR's EFO press release / fiscal-rules table).

Common errors to avoid

• ❌ Quoting the old PSND-based investment rule. Replaced by PSNFL in Autumn 2024.
• ❌ Saying "the rule is binding" without checking current OBR assessment.
• ❌ Conflating the stability rule (current budget) with overall borrowing (PSNB). They differ by net investment.
• ❌ Assuming the welfare cap covers state pension. It does not.

Source

HM Treasury, Charter for Budget Responsibility, Autumn 2024 (updated Autumn 2025). OBR Economic and Fiscal Outlook contains the formal compliance assessment.

ONS public sector classification

What's inside the public sector?

ONS makes the formal classification decision for each entity. The boundary matters because it determines whether an entity's borrowing counts towards PSNB and PSND (and therefore towards fiscal rule headroom).

Inside the public sector

• Central government departments and agencies.
• Local government (councils, mayoral combined authorities).
• Public corporations (e.g. Network Rail, Channel 4, Royal Mail before privatisation, Ordnance Survey).
• The Bank of England (since reclassification in 2024 EFO discussions).

Outside the public sector

• Private sector firms even when heavily regulated (e.g. water companies, train operating companies post-franchise reform).
• Charities and trusts unless under "public sector control".
• Universities (in England) since 2019 ONS classification decision.
• Housing associations (in England) since 2017 reclassification.

When does an entity get reclassified IN?

ONS applies a control test. Indicative factors:

• Government appoints the majority of the board.
• Government sets policy direction (not just regulation).
• Government bears the residual financial risk.
• Government can compel the entity to change behaviour.

Recent reclassifications into the public sector have included Network Rail (2014) and English housing associations (2015, partially reversed 2017).

Why this matters for a fiscal briefing

If an entity is reclassified into the public sector, its borrowing flows to PSNB. A large reclassification can shift the headline deficit by several billion pounds in a single revision. Always note the latest reclassification decisions in the Risks section if relevant.

Common errors to avoid

• ❌ Treating PFI/PF2 contracts as off-balance-sheet without checking. ONS reclassifications since 2018 have brought significant amounts onto the balance sheet.
• ❌ Ignoring contingent liabilities (e.g. UKEF guarantees, student loan write-offs).
• ❌ Conflating the public sector with general government (general government excludes public corporations).

Source

ONS Public Sector Classification Guide (ESA 2010 framework). Quarterly classification update.

Fact pack

Authoritative reference for fiscal definitions and rules that Claude consistently mishandles when generating briefings. Each file is a single topic.

The fiscal-briefing skill is required to read the relevant fact file BEFORE drafting any section that touches that topic. Files here override training-data recall.

Files

• triple_lock.md: UK state pension triple lock arms and which-arm-binds rule
• fiscal_rules_uk.md: Current Charter for Budget Responsibility numerical rules
• debt_definitions_uk.md: PSND ex BoE, PSND incl BoE, PSNFL, PSNW
• benefit_uprating.md: Working-age (CPI Sep) vs pensioner (triple lock) uprating
• ons_classification.md: When is an entity inside the public sector boundary?

Adding to the pack

Add a new file when:

• A factual error keeps recurring across briefings (the user keeps having to correct the same claim).
• A rule changes (e.g. new Charter, new welfare cap).
• A definition is non-obvious and easy to misremember.

Keep each file under 50 lines. Lead with the canonical definition, then add the dated wording (so a reader can tell which version of the rule the file describes).

State pension triple lock

Definition

Each April, the UK state pension is uprated by the highest of three measures ("arms"):

1. CPI inflation: ONS CPI year-on-year growth, September value (the September figure published in October sets the following April's uprating). 2. Average earnings growth: ONS average weekly earnings (regular pay, total whole-economy), 3-month average ending in July year-on-year growth. 3. A floor of 2.5%.

The arm that produces the highest figure is the one that "binds" for that year's uprating.

Which-arm-binds rule (do NOT recall, compute from current data)

To say which arm is binding, you must:

1. Pull current September CPI YoY (or the most recent September if the latest hasn't published yet). 2. Pull current July earnings growth (3-month average, regular pay). 3. Compare to 2.5%. 4. The maximum of the three is the binding arm.

Recent history (illustrative; verify against current ONS data before quoting):

The 2.5% floor has not been the binding arm in recent uprating decisions. Earnings or CPI has dominated since at least 2010-11. Do not state "the floor is binding" without computing from the latest data.

Common errors to avoid

• ❌ "The 2.5% floor is the binding arm" without computing it.
• ❌ Citing the wrong September (e.g. quoting 2024 September CPI for the April 2026 uprating, when April 2026 uses September 2025).
• ❌ Conflating earnings (July, regular pay) with CPI (September). They are different reference periods.
• ❌ Treating the triple lock as also applying to working-age benefits. It does not. Working-age benefits are uprated by September CPI alone (see benefit_uprating.md).

Source

HM Government policy. Statutory basis: Social Security Administration Act 1992, as amended; uprating decisions confirmed each year in the Secretary of State's annual review.