First Law Of Capital Allocation

Name: First Law Of Capital Allocation
Author: kangarooking

kangarooking/buffett-letters-skill

44 installs
65 repo stars
Updated April 17, 2026
kangarooking/buffett-letters-skill

Understand the primacy of capital allocation in business success.

About

Capital allocation is the CEO's most crucial function. Where money flows determines enterprise value more than operational efficiency.

Capital allocation priority
Value creation sequencing

First Law Of Capital Allocation by the numbers

44 all-time installs (skills.sh)
+1 installs in the week ending Aug 2, 2026 (Skillselion tracking)
Ranked #614 of 1,106 Finance & Trading skills by installs in the Skillselion catalog
Data as of Aug 5, 2026 (Skillselion catalog sync)

npx skills add https://github.com/kangarooking/buffett-letters-skill --skill first-law-of-capital-allocation

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Installs	44
repo stars	★ 65
Last updated	April 17, 2026
Repository	kangarooking/buffett-letters-skill ↗

What it does

Understand the primacy of capital allocation in business success.

Files

SKILL.mdMarkdownGitHub ↗

资本配置第一法则

R — 原文 (Reading)

"What is smart at one price is dumb at another." (2011)

"We test the wisdom of retaining earnings by assessing whether retention, over time, delivers shareholders at least $1 of market value for each $1 retained." (1983)

I — 方法论骨架

价格是决定一切的核心变量。同一行为在不同价格下可能是聪明或愚蠢的：

回购：低于内在价值时是好事（为留任股东创造价值），高于内在价值时是坏事（$1.10买$1）
收购：价格合理+企业优秀=好交易，价格过高+协同效应幻觉=灾难
留存收益：每保留$1至少创造$1市场价值，否则应分红
分红：如果留存不能创造≥$1的价值，应把现金还给股东

A1 — 书中的应用

案例: 1999年回购批评

问题: 公司高价回购是否对股东好？
使用: 以高于内在价值回购 = "用$1.10买$1" = 对留任股东的损害
结果: 巴菲特批评了许多"为推高股价或抵消期权稀释"而回购的公司

A2 — 触发场景

1. 公司宣布回购计划——是否对股东有利？ 2. 公司留存大量利润不分红——是否创造了价值？ 3. 考虑收购另一家公司——价格是否合理？ 4. 应该卖掉持仓还是继续持有？

语言信号

"公司要回购，是不是利好？"
"应该分红还是再投资？"
"这个收购价格合理吗？"
"留存收益能创造多少价值？"

与相邻 skill 的区分

与 never-issue-shares 的区别：不用股票收购是绝对原则，第一法则是具体判断

E — 可执行步骤

1. 先问"在什么价格"——不问"做什么"，先问"价格多少"

完成标准：明确当前价格与内在价值的比较

2. 用$1测试

完成标准：判断这个行动是为股东创造还是毁灭价值（>$1 or <$1）

3. 对任何"无视价格"的建议保持警惕

完成标准：检查是否有"回购总是好的"/"分红总是好的"这类绝对化建议

B — 边界

需要能评估内在价值——否则无法判断价格是否合理
市场可能长期低估，导致"合理"的回购在短期内看似不明智
作者盲点：巴菲特有足够的资金等待——小投资者可能等不起

---

审计信息

验证通过: V1 ✓ / V2 ✓ / V3 ✓
蒸馏时间: 2026-04-16

{
  "skill": "first-law-of-capital-allocation",
  "version": "0.1.0",
  "source_book": "《巴菲特致股东的信》 — 沃伦·巴菲特",
  "darwin_compatible": true,
  "test_cases": [
    {
      "id": "should-trigger-01",
      "type": "should_trigger",
      "prompt": "公司宣布回购100亿股票，是不是利好",
      "expected_behavior": "应激活 first-law-of-capital-allocation，指出回购好坏取决于价格——低于内在价值才是好的",
      "notes": "回购决策需要价格条件判断"
    },
    {
      "id": "should-trigger-02",
      "type": "should_trigger",
      "prompt": "这家公司不分红，留存收益能创造价值吗",
      "expected_behavior": "应激活 first-law-of-capital-allocation，用$1测试评估留存收益效率",
      "notes": "分红vs留存的经典问题"
    },
    {
      "id": "should-trigger-03",
      "type": "should_trigger",
      "prompt": "公司有大量现金，应该用来收购还是回购",
      "expected_behavior": "应激活 first-law-of-capital-allocation，用第一法则框架评估哪种配置创造更多价值",
      "notes": "资本配置选择"
    },
    {
      "id": "should-not-trigger-01",
      "type": "should_not_trigger",
      "prompt": "这个股票技术面怎么样",
      "expected_behavior": "不应激活本skill，这是技术分析请求",
      "notes": "诱饵：技术分析≠资本配置"
    },
    {
      "id": "should-not-trigger-02",
      "type": "should_not_trigger",
      "prompt": "帮我算一下内在价值",
      "expected_behavior": "不应激活本skill，这是纯估值请求",
      "notes": "诱饵：估值≠配置决策"
    },
    {
      "id": "edge-01",
      "type": "edge_case",
      "prompt": "公司回购价格高于内在价值",
      "expected_behavior": "应指出回购在价格高于内在价值时是损害股东利益的行为",
      "notes": "边界：同一行为在不同价格下对错不同"
    }
  ],
  "minimum_pass_rate": 0.8
}