Pre Mortem
Stress-test a PRD or launch plan before ship day by surfacing Tigers, Paper Tigers, and Elephants and prioritizing launch-blocking vs fast-follow mitigations.
Overview
Pre-mortem is an agent skill most often used in Ship — Launch (also Validate — Scope) that runs a structured pre-launch risk analysis on a PRD or plan, classifying Tigers, Paper Tigers, and Elephants and prioritizing lau
Install
npx skills add https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills --skill pre-mortemWhat is this skill?
- Imagines launch in 14 days then works backward from failure to list root causes
- Categorizes risks as Tigers (real), Paper Tigers (overblown), and Elephants (unspoken)
- Classifies each risk as launch-blocking, fast-follow, or track with actionable mitigations
- Reads the full PRD or plan first and may research market or competitive context
- Structured PM ritual for teams stress-testing assumptions before commitment
- Uses Tigers, Paper Tigers, and Elephants risk categories
- Classifies mitigations as launch-blocking, fast-follow, or track
- Core exercise assumes launch in 14 days then imagines failure
Adoption & trust: 1.1k installs on skills.sh; 12.3k GitHub stars; 3/3 security scanners passed (skills.sh audits).
What problem does it solve?
You have a PRD or launch plan but no shared, prioritized picture of what could realistically kill adoption or revenue right after launch.
Who is it for?
Solo builders and indie PMs with a written PRD or launch plan who want a forced failure scenario and clear go/no-go risks before committing to a date.
Skip if: Teams with no written plan to analyze, post-launch incident response only, or environments that need formal compliance or penetration-test sign-off instead of product risk framing.
When should I use this skill?
Preparing for launch, stress-testing a product plan or PRD, or identifying what could go wrong before there is no time to act.
What do I get? / Deliverables
You get a categorized risk register (Tigers, Paper Tigers, Elephants) with launch-blocking, fast-follow, and track actions so you can mitigate blockers before ship.
- Categorized risk list (Tigers, Paper Tigers, Elephants)
- Prioritized actions labeled launch-blocking, fast-follow, or track
- Mitigation-oriented narrative grounded in the provided plan
Recommended Skills
Journey fit
Spans multiple journey phases - primary shelf plus alternate fits below.
Pre-mortems assume imminent launch failure and drive mitigation plans—canonical shelf is Ship because the skill is built for launch-readiness and go/no-go risk framing. Launch subphase matches preparing for launch, identifying launch-blocking risks, and deciding what must ship vs fast-follow vs track.
Where it fits
Stress-test a scoped MVP PRD for hidden adoption and positioning risks before you start the full build.
Run the 14-day failure scenario to label launch-blocking issues before you freeze the release candidate.
Complement a code or spec review with Elephant risks the team is avoiding naming in Slack.
Catch distribution or messaging Tigers that would undermine launch day campaigns.
Re-run a lighter pre-mortem before a major pricing or lifecycle change that behaves like a mini-launch.
How it compares
Use instead of ad-hoc “what could go wrong?” brainstorming without severity tiers or launch-blocking labels.
Common Questions / FAQ
Who is pre-mortem for?
Solo builders, indie founders, and small product teams shipping SaaS or agent-assisted products who already have a PRD or launch plan and want PM-grade risk triage before a fixed launch window.
When should I use pre-mortem?
During Validate when stress-testing scope and assumptions on a product plan, and during Ship launch prep when you need launch-blocking vs fast-follow mitigations; also when stakeholders disagree on risk severity before distribution or SEO work begins.
Is pre-mortem safe to install?
It is procedural analysis text—review the Security Audits panel on this Prism skill page for the package’s ingested audit status before installing from skills.sh or a repo.
SKILL.md
READMESKILL.md - Pre Mortem
# Pre-Mortem: Risk Analysis for Product Launch ## Purpose You are a veteran product manager conducting a pre-mortem analysis on $ARGUMENTS. This skill imagines launch failure and works backward to identify real risks, distinguish them from perceived worries, and create action plans to mitigate launch-blocking issues. ## Context A pre-mortem is a structured risk-identification exercise that forces teams to think critically about what could go wrong before launch, when there's still time to act. By assuming failure, we surface hidden concerns and separate legitimate threats from overblown worries. ## Instructions 1. **Gather the PRD**: If the user provides a PRD or product plan file, read it thoroughly. Understand the product, target market, key assumptions, and timeline. If relevant, use web search to research competitive landscape or market conditions. 2. **Think Step by Step**: - Imagine the product launches in 14 days - Now imagine it fails—customers don't adopt it, revenue targets miss, reputation takes a hit - What went wrong? - What did we miss or not execute well? - What were we overconfident about? 3. **Categorize Risks**: Classify each potential failure as one of three types: **Tigers**: Real problems you personally see that could derail the project - Based on evidence, past experience, or clear logic - Should keep you awake at night - Require action **Paper Tigers**: Problems others might worry about, but you don't believe in them - Valid concerns on the surface, but unlikely or overblown - Not worth significant resource investment - Worth documenting to align stakeholders **Elephants**: Something you're not sure is a problem, but the team isn't discussing it enough - Unspoken concerns or assumptions nobody is validating - Could be real; you're unsure - Deserve investigation before launch 4. **Classify Tigers by Urgency**: **Launch-Blocking**: Must be solved before launch - Example: Core feature broken, regulatory blocker, key customer dependency unmet **Fast-Follow**: Must be solved within 30 days post-launch - Example: Performance issues, secondary features incomplete **Track**: Monitor post-launch; solve if it becomes an issue - Example: Nice-to-have features, edge cases 5. **Create Action Plans**: For every Launch-Blocking Tiger: - Describe the risk clearly - Suggest a concrete mitigation action - Identify the best owner (function/person) - Set a decision/completion date 6. **Structure Output**: Present the analysis as: ``` ## Pre-Mortem Analysis: [Product Name] ### Tigers (Real Risks) [List each real risk with category and mitigation plan] ### Paper Tigers (Overblown Concerns) [List each, explain why it's not a true risk] ### Elephants (Unspoken Worries) [List each, recommend investigation approach] ### Action Plans for Launch-Blocking Tigers [For each, include: Risk, Mitigation, Owner, Due Date] ``` 7. **Save the Output**: Save as a markdown document: `PreMortem-[product-name]-[date].md` ## Notes - Be honest and constructive—the goal is to improve launch readiness, not assign blame - Default to "Tiger" if unsure; it's better to address risks early - Involve cross-functional perspectives (engineering, design, go-to-market) in your analysis - Revisit the pre-mortem 2-3 weeks before launch to verify mitigations are on track --- ### Further Reading - [How Meta and Instagram Use Pre-Mortems to Avoid Post-Mortems](https://www.productcompass.pm/p/how-to-run-pre-mortem-template) - [How to Manage Risks as a Product Manag