Prioritize Assumptions
Rank product assumptions with an Impact × Risk matrix and get suggested experiments before building the wrong thing.
Overview
Prioritize Assumptions is an agent skill most often used in Validate (also Idea) that ranks assumptions on Impact × Risk and recommends experiments for what to validate first.
Install
npx skills add https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills --skill prioritize-assumptionsWhat is this skill?
- Scores each assumption on Impact (value × customers in ICE framing) and Risk as (1 − Confidence) × Effort
- Maps items to four quadrants: defer, implement, experiment now, or monitor
- References ICE and RICE with pointer to prioritization-frameworks skill for full formulas
- Accepts user-provided assumption lists or research files as input context
- Suggests targeted experiments per high-priority assumption rather than blanket research
Adoption & trust: 1k installs on skills.sh; 12.3k GitHub stars; 3/3 security scanners passed (skills.sh audits).
What problem does it solve?
You have a long list of product assumptions and no clear order for which ones to test before committing engineering time.
Who is it for?
Solo builders and indie PMs running lean validation who already captured assumptions and need ICE-aligned triage.
Skip if: Teams without a written assumption list or those seeking full roadmap construction without a validation frame.
When should I use this skill?
Triaging a list of assumptions, deciding what to test first, or applying the assumption prioritization canvas.
What do I get? / Deliverables
You get a prioritized assumption matrix with quadrant labels and experiment suggestions so validation work starts on highest leverage, manageable-risk items.
- Impact × Risk categorized assumption list
- Suggested experiments per prioritized assumption
Recommended Skills
Journey fit
Spans multiple journey phases - primary shelf plus alternate fits below.
Assumption triage belongs on the Validate shelf because it gates scope and what to test first, while still feeding Idea research lists and Build prioritization. Scope subphase is where you decide what to validate next and what to defer—matching the Impact × Risk canvas output.
Where it fits
Turn interview notes into assumptions and rank which customer beliefs need evidence before picking a niche.
Place ten MVP assumptions into Impact × Risk quadrants to sequence two-week experiments.
Defer low-impact assumptions while fast-tracking experiments on high-impact, high-risk bets.
Re-run triage after build starts when new technical assumptions appear mid-sprint.
How it compares
A structured assumption canvas workflow, not a codebase generator or analytics dashboard integration.
Common Questions / FAQ
Who is prioritize-assumptions for?
Solo founders and product-minded builders who maintain explicit assumptions and want matrix-based triage before experiments.
When should I use prioritize-assumptions?
Use it in Validate/scope when triaging assumptions, deciding what to test first, or applying an assumption prioritization canvas; also in Idea/research when narrowing which beliefs need data.
Is prioritize-assumptions safe to install?
It is planning-only text guidance with no shell requirements; review the Security Audits panel on this Prism page like any third-party skill.
Workflow Chain
Then invoke: prioritization frameworks
SKILL.md
READMESKILL.md - Prioritize Assumptions
## Prioritize Assumptions Triage assumptions using an Impact × Risk matrix and suggest targeted experiments. ### Context You are helping prioritize assumptions for **$ARGUMENTS**. If the user provides files with assumptions or research data, read them first. ### Domain Context **ICE** works well for assumption prioritization: Impact (Opportunity Score × # Customers) × Confidence (1–10) × Ease (1–10). Opportunity Score = Importance × (1 − Satisfaction), normalized to 0–1 (Dan Olsen). **RICE** splits Impact into Reach × Impact separately: (R × I × C) / E. See the `prioritization-frameworks` skill for full formulas and templates. ### Instructions The user will provide a list of assumptions to prioritize. Apply the following framework: 1. **For each assumption**, evaluate two dimensions: - **Impact**: The value created by validating this assumption AND the number of customers affected (in ICE: Impact = Opportunity Score × # Customers) - **Risk**: Defined as (1 - Confidence) × Effort 2. **Categorize each assumption** using the Impact × Risk matrix: - **Low Impact, Low Risk** → Defer testing until higher-priority assumptions are addressed - **High Impact, Low Risk** → Proceed to implementation (low risk, high reward) - **Low Impact, High Risk** → Reject the idea (not worth the investment) - **High Impact, High Risk** → Design an experiment to test it 3. **For each assumption requiring testing**, suggest an experiment that: - Maximizes validated learning with minimal effort - Measures actual behavior, not opinions - Has a clear success metric and threshold 4. **Present results** as a prioritized matrix or table. Think step by step. Save as markdown if the output is substantial. --- ### Further Reading - [Assumption Prioritization Canvas: How to Identify And Test The Right Assumptions](https://www.productcompass.pm/p/assumption-prioritization-canvas) - [Continuous Product Discovery Masterclass (CPDM)](https://www.productcompass.pm/p/cpdm) (video course)