Prioritize Assumptions
- 1.9k installs
- 24.9k repo stars
- Updated July 3, 2026
- phuryn/pm-skills
prioritize-assumptions ranks assumptions via Impact times Risk matrix with experiment suggestions.
About
The prioritize-assumptions skill triages assumption lists using impact defined as opportunity score times customers affected and risk as one minus confidence times effort. Matrix quadrants defer low-low items, implement high-impact low-risk bets, reject low-impact high-risk ideas, and experiment on high-high cells. ICE and RICE references tie to related prioritization-frameworks skill for formula details. For test-worthy assumptions agents propose experiments maximizing learning with behavioral metrics and clear thresholds. Output is a prioritized table or matrix saved as markdown when substantial. Use when triaging assumptions, deciding what to test first, or applying the assumption prioritization canvas after identification steps.
- Plots assumptions on Impact times Risk matrix quadrants.
- Uses opportunity score and confidence-effort risk formula.
- Suggests experiments for high-impact high-risk assumptions.
- Defers or rejects low-value high-risk combinations.
- Outputs prioritized tables linked to ICE and RICE frameworks.
Prioritize Assumptions by the numbers
- 1,934 all-time installs (skills.sh)
- +84 installs in the week ending Aug 5, 2026 (Skillselion tracking)
- Ranked #255 of 3,282 Productivity & Planning skills by installs in the Skillselion catalog
- Security screen: LOW risk (skills.sh audit)
- Data as of Aug 5, 2026 (Skillselion catalog sync)
prioritize-assumptions capabilities & compatibility
- Capabilities
- matrix triage · experiment suggestion · ice rice alignment
- Use cases
- planning · research
What prioritize-assumptions says it does
Triage assumptions using an Impact × Risk matrix and suggest targeted experiments.
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| Installs | 1.9k |
|---|---|
| repo stars | ★ 24.9k |
| Security audit | 3 / 3 scanners passed |
| Last updated | July 3, 2026 |
| Repository | phuryn/pm-skills ↗ |
Which assumptions should we test first with limited discovery capacity?
Prioritize assumptions on an Impact times Risk matrix and suggest minimal-effort experiments for high-impact high-risk items.
Who is it for?
Teams with assumption lists after identification workshops.
Skip if: Initial assumption brainstorming without a list to rank.
When should I use this skill?
User triages assumptions, prioritization canvas, or test ordering.
What you get
Prioritized matrix with quadrant actions and targeted experiments for top risks.
Files
Prioritize Assumptions
Triage assumptions using an Impact × Risk matrix and suggest targeted experiments.
Context
You are helping prioritize assumptions for $ARGUMENTS.
If the user provides files with assumptions or research data, read them first.
Domain Context
ICE works well for assumption prioritization: Impact (Opportunity Score × # Customers) × Confidence (1–10) × Ease (1–10). Opportunity Score = Importance × (1 − Satisfaction), normalized to 0–1 (Dan Olsen). RICE splits Impact into Reach × Impact separately: (R × I × C) / E. See the prioritization-frameworks skill for full formulas and templates.
Instructions
The user will provide a list of assumptions to prioritize. Apply the following framework:
1. For each assumption, evaluate two dimensions:
- Impact: The value created by validating this assumption AND the number of customers affected (in ICE: Impact = Opportunity Score × # Customers)
- Risk: Defined as (1 - Confidence) × Effort
2. Categorize each assumption using the Impact × Risk matrix:
- Low Impact, Low Risk → Defer testing until higher-priority assumptions are addressed
- High Impact, Low Risk → Proceed to implementation (low risk, high reward)
- Low Impact, High Risk → Reject the idea (not worth the investment)
- High Impact, High Risk → Design an experiment to test it
3. For each assumption requiring testing, suggest an experiment that:
- Maximizes validated learning with minimal effort
- Measures actual behavior, not opinions
- Has a clear success metric and threshold
4. Present results as a prioritized matrix or table.
Think step by step. Save as markdown if the output is substantial.
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Further Reading
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Use for ordering assumptions; follow with brainstorm-experiments-existing to flesh out specific test designs.
FAQ
How is risk calculated?
Risk equals one minus confidence multiplied by effort.
What happens to high-impact low-risk items?
Proceed toward implementation with less experimentation overhead.
What about high-impact high-risk?
Design a minimal experiment with behavioral metrics and success thresholds.
Is Prioritize Assumptions safe to install?
skills.sh reports 3 of 3 security scanners passed. Review the Security Audits panel on this page before installing in production.