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Token Economics

  • 201 installs
  • 257 repo stars
  • Updated June 24, 2026
  • agiprolabs/claude-trading-skills

token-economics is a Claude Code skill for analyzing token supply dynamics, vesting, inflation modeling, and valuation frameworks for crypto tokens.

About

token-economics is a Claude Code skill for analyzing crypto token supply dynamics, vesting, inflation, and valuation. It covers total versus circulating supply, market cap versus fully diluted valuation, net inflation rate, unlock-impact modeling, selling-pressure estimation, and token distribution scoring with red-flag thresholds. A developer uses it to estimate dilution risk and anticipate price-moving unlock events when evaluating a token.

  • Supply, FDV/MCap, and net inflation-rate analysis
  • Vesting/unlock impact modeling and selling-pressure estimation
  • Token distribution quality scoring with red-flag thresholds

Token Economics by the numbers

  • 201 all-time installs (skills.sh)
  • Ranked #466 of 1,106 Finance & Trading skills by installs in the Skillselion catalog
  • Data as of Aug 4, 2026 (Skillselion catalog sync)
At a glance

token-economics capabilities & compatibility

Capabilities
tokenomics analysis · supply modeling · valuation · dilution risk
Use cases
trading · data analysis
Pricing
Free
From the docs

What token-economics says it does

Tokenomics — the study of token supply dynamics, distribution, and value accrual — is one of the most important factors in crypto asset analysis.
SKILL.md
A large unlock releasing 10% of circulating supply in one day often causes 5-20% drawdowns
SKILL.md
npx skills add https://github.com/agiprolabs/claude-trading-skills --skill token-economics

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Listed on Skillselion
Installs201
repo stars257
Last updatedJune 24, 2026
Repositoryagiprolabs/claude-trading-skills

What it does

Analyze token supply, vesting, inflation, and valuation to estimate dilution risk and unlock impact.

Who is it for?

Estimating dilution risk, unlock impact, and valuation when evaluating a crypto token.

Skip if: Live token price feeds or on-chain data retrieval, which it defers to data sources and other skills.

When should I use this skill?

You need to assess a token's supply, vesting schedule, inflation, or distribution before trading.

What you get

A dilution-risk, unlock-impact, and distribution-quality assessment for a crypto token.

  • A dilution-risk and unlock-impact assessment
  • A token distribution quality score

By the numbers

  • 4-band FDV/MCap dilution-risk table
  • 4-band unlock-impact model vs daily volume
  • Distribution red-flag thresholds per allocation category

Files

SKILL.mdMarkdownGitHub ↗

Token Economics

Tokenomics — the study of token supply dynamics, distribution, and value accrual — is one of the most important factors in crypto asset analysis. Supply changes directly affect price: new tokens entering circulation create selling pressure, while burns and locks reduce it. Understanding these dynamics lets you estimate dilution risk, identify overvalued or undervalued tokens, and anticipate price-moving unlock events.

Why Tokenomics Matters

Price is a function of demand and supply. In crypto, supply is programmable and constantly changing:

  • A token inflating at 50%/year needs 50% demand growth just to maintain price
  • A large unlock releasing 10% of circulating supply in one day often causes 5-20% drawdowns
  • Tokens with >80% of supply locked have extreme dilution risk ahead
  • Protocols that burn fees can become net deflationary, creating structural price support

Key Supply Concepts

Total Supply vs Circulating Supply

total_supply      = maximum tokens that will ever exist (or current total minted)
circulating_supply = tokens currently available for trading
locked_supply     = total_supply - circulating_supply
circulating_pct   = circulating_supply / total_supply * 100

Market Cap vs Fully Diluted Valuation

market_cap = price * circulating_supply
fdv        = price * total_supply
fdv_mcap_ratio = fdv / market_cap

The FDV/MCap ratio measures future dilution risk:

FDV/MCapDilution RiskInterpretation
1.0-1.5LowMost supply already circulating
1.5-3.0ModerateSignificant supply still locked
3.0-5.0HighMajority of supply not yet released
>5.0Very HighToken will face massive dilution

Net Inflation Rate

annual_new_tokens = emissions + vesting_unlocks + rewards
annual_burned     = fee_burns + buyback_burns
net_new_tokens    = annual_new_tokens - annual_burned
net_inflation_rate = net_new_tokens / circulating_supply * 100  # percent per year

Supply Dynamics

Inflationary Pressure (tokens entering circulation)

  • Emissions: Block rewards, liquidity mining, staking rewards
  • Vesting unlocks: Team, investor, and advisor tokens unlocking on schedule
  • Unlock events: Large one-time releases (cliff expirations)
  • Treasury spending: DAO or foundation distributing tokens

Deflationary Pressure (tokens leaving circulation)

  • Fee burns: Protocol burns a portion of transaction fees (like EIP-1559)
  • Buyback and burn: Protocol uses revenue to buy and permanently destroy tokens
  • Staking locks: Tokens locked in staking (temporarily removed from circulation)
  • Lost tokens: Permanently inaccessible tokens (lost keys, burn addresses)

Selling Pressure Estimation

daily_emissions_usd = daily_new_tokens * token_price
percent_sold = 0.50  # assume 50% of new tokens are sold (conservative)
daily_sell_pressure = daily_emissions_usd * percent_sold
sell_pressure_ratio = daily_sell_pressure / daily_volume
# > 0.05 (5%) = significant selling pressure
# > 0.10 (10%) = heavy selling pressure

Vesting and Unlock Schedules

Key Concepts

  • Cliff: Period before any tokens unlock (typically 6-12 months)
  • Linear vesting: Constant rate of unlock after cliff (monthly or daily)
  • Stepped vesting: Periodic unlocks at set intervals (quarterly)
  • TGE unlock: Percentage released at Token Generation Event

Analyzing Unlock Impact

unlock_amount_tokens = 10_000_000
avg_daily_volume_tokens = 5_000_000
unlock_volume_ratio = unlock_amount_tokens / avg_daily_volume_tokens

# Impact assessment:
# < 1x daily volume: minor impact
# 1-5x daily volume: moderate impact, expect 2-5% drawdown
# 5-10x daily volume: major impact, expect 5-15% drawdown
# > 10x daily volume: severe impact, expect 10-30% drawdown

Tracking Sources

  • CoinGecko / CoinMarketCap: Basic supply data
  • Token Terminal: Revenue and valuation metrics
  • Token Unlocks (token.unlocks.app): Detailed unlock schedules
  • Project documentation: Whitepapers, tokenomics pages
  • On-chain: Vesting contract state, treasury balances

Token Distribution Analysis

Typical Allocation Ranges

CategoryTypical RangeRed Flag
Team/Founders15-25%>30%
Investors (Seed+Series)10-30%>40%
Community/Ecosystem20-40%<15%
Treasury/DAO10-20%<5%
Public Sale5-20%<2%
Advisors2-5%>10%

Distribution Red Flags

  • >50% insider allocation (team + investors): Insiders control price
  • Short vesting (<1 year): Quick dump risk
  • No cliff: Immediate selling from day one
  • Large single wallets: Concentration risk (use token-holder-analysis skill)
  • Unlabeled large allocations: Hidden insider holdings

Distribution Quality Score

def distribution_score(team_pct: float, investor_pct: float,
                       community_pct: float, cliff_months: int,
                       vesting_months: int) -> str:
    """Rate token distribution quality."""
    score = 0
    insider_pct = team_pct + investor_pct

    if insider_pct < 30: score += 3
    elif insider_pct < 50: score += 1

    if community_pct > 30: score += 2
    elif community_pct > 20: score += 1

    if cliff_months >= 12: score += 2
    elif cliff_months >= 6: score += 1

    if vesting_months >= 36: score += 2
    elif vesting_months >= 24: score += 1

    if score >= 8: return "Excellent"
    if score >= 6: return "Good"
    if score >= 4: return "Moderate"
    return "Poor"

Valuation Frameworks

Revenue-Based Metrics

# Price-to-Earnings (for fee-generating protocols)
pe_ratio = fdv / annualized_net_revenue

# Price-to-Sales
ps_ratio = fdv / annualized_total_volume

# Price-to-Fees
pf_ratio = fdv / annualized_protocol_fees

# Revenue Multiple (adjusted for token value accrual)
rev_multiple = fdv / (annualized_fees * fee_share_to_token_holders)

Typical ranges (crypto, highly variable):

  • P/E: 10x-100x+ (DeFi protocols)
  • P/S: 0.5x-50x
  • P/F: 20x-500x

Network Value Metrics

# Network Value to Transactions (NVT)
nvt = market_cap / daily_transaction_volume_usd
# High NVT (>100): potentially overvalued or store-of-value
# Low NVT (<20): potentially undervalued or high activity

# Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV)
# realized_value = sum of each token at its last-moved price
mvrv = market_cap / realized_value
# MVRV > 3.0: historically overvalued zone
# MVRV < 1.0: historically undervalued zone

Comparable Analysis

def comparable_analysis(target: dict, peers: list[dict]) -> dict:
    """Compare target token metrics against peer group.

    Each dict has: name, fdv, revenue, tvl, users
    Returns premium/discount percentages.
    """
    peer_fdv_rev = [p["fdv"] / p["revenue"] for p in peers if p["revenue"] > 0]
    peer_fdv_tvl = [p["fdv"] / p["tvl"] for p in peers if p["tvl"] > 0]

    avg_fdv_rev = sum(peer_fdv_rev) / len(peer_fdv_rev) if peer_fdv_rev else 0
    avg_fdv_tvl = sum(peer_fdv_tvl) / len(peer_fdv_tvl) if peer_fdv_tvl else 0

    target_fdv_rev = target["fdv"] / target["revenue"] if target["revenue"] > 0 else 0
    target_fdv_tvl = target["fdv"] / target["tvl"] if target["tvl"] > 0 else 0

    return {
        "fdv_rev_premium": (target_fdv_rev / avg_fdv_rev - 1) * 100 if avg_fdv_rev else None,
        "fdv_tvl_premium": (target_fdv_tvl / avg_fdv_tvl - 1) * 100 if avg_fdv_tvl else None,
    }

Token Value Accrual Mechanisms

MechanismDescriptionValuation Impact
Fee sharingHolders receive protocol revenueDirect cash flow, use DCF
GovernanceVoting rights on protocolHard to value, often overpriced
UtilityRequired for protocol useDemand scales with usage
Buyback & burnProtocol buys and burnsReduces supply, structural bid
Staking rewardsYield from stakingInflationary if from emissions
veToken modelLock for boosted rewards + governanceReduces circulating supply

PumpFun Token Economics

PumpFun tokens on Solana have simplified tokenomics:

  • Fixed supply: 1,000,000,000 tokens (1 billion)
  • No vesting: All tokens available immediately at launch
  • No team allocation: 100% available on bonding curve
  • Bonding curve pricing: Price determined by curve math, not supply changes
  • Post-graduation: After bonding curve completes, supply is fully liquid on Raydium
  • No inflation: No emissions, no staking rewards, no additional minting

Analysis focus for PumpFun tokens shifts from supply dynamics to:

  • Holder concentration (use token-holder-analysis)
  • Volume sustainability
  • Liquidity depth (use liquidity-analysis)
  • Dev wallet behavior

Integration with Other Skills

SkillIntegration
defillama-apiFetch TVL, revenue, fees for valuation metrics
token-holder-analysisAnalyze holder concentration and whale behavior
coingecko-apiFetch supply data, market cap, FDV
liquidity-analysisAssess trading liquidity relative to supply
risk-managementSupply dilution as risk factor
position-sizingAdjust size for dilution risk

Files

References

  • references/supply_analysis.md — Circulating supply tracking, inflation modeling, unlock analysis, burn mechanics
  • references/valuation_frameworks.md — Revenue-based valuation, NVT, MVRV, comparable analysis, value accrual

Scripts

  • scripts/tokenomics_analyzer.py — Fetch and analyze token supply metrics from CoinGecko, calculate dilution risk and basic valuations
  • scripts/supply_modeler.py — Project token supply over 12 months given emission and burn parameters, scenario analysis

Related skills

FAQ

What does the FDV/MCap ratio tell you?

It measures future dilution risk: 1.0-1.5 is low (most supply circulating), 1.5-3.0 moderate, 3.0-5.0 high, and above 5.0 very high, meaning the token faces massive dilution.

How is unlock impact estimated?

By dividing the unlock amount by average daily volume; under 1x is minor, 1-5x moderate (2-5% drawdown), 5-10x major (5-15%), and over 10x severe (10-30% drawdown).

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