Returns Analysis
- 1 installs
- 34k repo stars
- Updated August 4, 2026
- anthropics/financial-services
Returns-analysis is a Claude skill that builds IRR/MOIC sensitivity and scenario tables for evaluating private equity deals.
About
Returns-analysis builds IRR and MOIC sensitivity tables for evaluating private equity deals. It takes entry, financing, operating, and exit assumptions, computes base-case returns with an attribution waterfall, and produces two-way sensitivity and scenario tables. An investor uses it when sizing up a deal, stress-testing assumptions, or preparing investment-committee returns exhibits.
- Builds IRR/MOIC sensitivity tables for PE deal evaluation
- Models returns across entry, leverage, exit, growth, and hold scenarios
- Outputs an Excel workbook and one-page IC returns summary
Returns Analysis by the numbers
- 1 all-time installs (skills.sh)
- Ranked #909 of 1,106 Finance & Trading skills by installs in the Skillselion catalog
- Data as of Aug 5, 2026 (Skillselion catalog sync)
returns-analysis capabilities & compatibility
- Capabilities
- swap curve strategy · sector overview · portfolio monitoring
- Works with
- excel
- Use cases
- data analysis
What returns-analysis says it does
Build quick IRR/MOIC sensitivity tables for PE deal evaluation.
**MOIC** = Exit Equity Value / Equity Invested
Don't forget transaction costs (typically 2-4% of EV)
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| Installs | 1 |
|---|---|
| repo stars | ★ 34k |
| Last updated | August 4, 2026 |
| Repository | anthropics/financial-services ↗ |
What it does
Build IRR/MOIC sensitivity and scenario tables to evaluate and stress-test a private equity deal.
Who is it for?
PE deal teams sizing up returns and preparing IC returns exhibits
Skip if: Public market portfolio rebalancing or trading
When should I use this skill?
Sizing up a deal, stress-testing assumptions, or preparing IC returns exhibits
What you get
An Excel workbook with sensitivity tables plus a one-page IC returns summary
- Excel workbook (assumptions, returns, sensitivities, scenarios)
- one-page IC returns summary
By the numbers
- 5-step workflow
- 3-scenario Bull/Base/Bear analysis
- returns attribution across growth/multiple/leverage
Files
Returns Analysis
Workflow
Step 1: Gather Deal Inputs
Ask for (or extract from prior analysis):
Entry:
- Entry EBITDA (LTM or NTM)
- Entry multiple (EV / EBITDA)
- Enterprise value
- Net debt at close
- Equity check size
- Transaction fees & expenses
Financing:
- Senior debt (x EBITDA, rate, amortization)
- Subordinated debt / mezzanine (if any)
- Total leverage at entry (x EBITDA)
- Equity contribution
Operating Assumptions:
- Revenue growth rate (annual)
- EBITDA margin trajectory
- Capex as % of revenue
- Working capital changes
- Debt paydown schedule
Exit:
- Hold period (years)
- Exit multiple (EV / EBITDA)
- Exit EBITDA (calculated from growth assumptions)
Step 2: Base Case Returns
Calculate:
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Entry EV | |
| Equity invested | |
| Exit EBITDA | |
| Exit EV | |
| Net debt at exit | |
| Exit equity value | |
| MOIC | |
| IRR | |
| Cash-on-cash |
Show the returns waterfall:
- EBITDA growth contribution
- Multiple expansion/contraction contribution
- Debt paydown contribution
- Fee/expense drag
Step 3: Sensitivity Tables
Build 2-way sensitivity matrices:
Entry Multiple vs. Exit Multiple
| Exit 6x | Exit 7x | Exit 8x | Exit 9x | Exit 10x | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry 7x | |||||
| Entry 8x | |||||
| Entry 9x | |||||
| Entry 10x |
EBITDA Growth vs. Exit Multiple (at fixed entry)
Leverage vs. Exit Multiple (at fixed entry and growth)
Hold Period vs. Exit Multiple
Show both IRR and MOIC in each cell (IRR / MOIC format).
Step 4: Scenario Analysis
Build 3 scenarios:
| Bull | Base | Bear | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR | |||
| Exit EBITDA margin | |||
| Exit multiple | |||
| Exit EBITDA | |||
| MOIC | |||
| IRR |
Step 5: Output
- Excel workbook with:
- Assumptions tab
- Returns calculation
- Sensitivity tables (formatted with conditional coloring)
- Scenario summary
- One-page returns summary suitable for IC deck
Key Formulas
- MOIC = Exit Equity Value / Equity Invested
- IRR = solve for r: Equity Invested × (1 + r)^n = Exit Equity Value (adjust for interim cash flows)
- Returns attribution:
- Growth: (Exit EBITDA - Entry EBITDA) × Exit Multiple / Equity
- Multiple: (Exit Multiple - Entry Multiple) × Entry EBITDA / Equity
- Leverage: Debt paydown over hold period / Equity
Important Notes
- Always show returns both gross and net of fees/carry where applicable
- Management rollover and co-invest change the equity check — ask if relevant
- Dividend recaps or interim distributions affect IRR significantly — include if planned
- Don't forget transaction costs (typically 2-4% of EV) — they reduce Day 1 equity value
- Tax considerations (asset vs. stock deal, 338(h)(10) election) can materially affect after-tax returns
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What sensitivities does it build?
Two-way matrices for entry vs exit multiple, EBITDA growth vs exit, leverage vs exit, and hold period vs exit.
What is the output?
An Excel workbook with assumptions, returns, sensitivity tables, and a one-page IC returns summary.