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Structural Modeling

  • 1 installs
  • 3.2k repo stars
  • Updated August 4, 2026
  • brycewang-stanford/awesome-agent-skills-for-empirical-research

structural-modeling is a Claude skill for specifying, estimating, and debugging structural econometric models including BLP demand, dynamic discrete choice, and auction models.

About

A reference skill for building, estimating, and debugging structural econometric models. Researchers use it for BLP demand estimation, dynamic discrete choice (Rust, Hotz-Miller CCP), auction models, and any workflow with moment conditions, nested fixed-point algorithms, or MPEC formulations. It walks the full arc from economic model to moment conditions to estimated parameters and helps diagnose convergence failures.

  • Reference for structural econometric models from economic model to estimated parameters
  • Covers NFXP vs MPEC, BLP random-coefficients demand, dynamic discrete choice, and auctions
  • Guides moment-condition derivation, estimator choice, and convergence debugging

Structural Modeling by the numbers

  • 1 all-time installs (skills.sh)
  • Ranked #1,803 of 2,064 Data Science & ML skills by installs in the Skillselion catalog
  • Data as of Aug 5, 2026 (Skillselion catalog sync)
At a glance

structural-modeling capabilities & compatibility

Capabilities
structural modeling · regression modeling
Use cases
data analysis
From the docs

What structural-modeling says it does

This skill covers structural econometric models. Use when the user is building, estimating, or debugging structural models
SKILL.md
Reference for implementing structural econometric models: from economic model to moment conditions to estimated parameters.
SKILL.md
**MPEC (Mathematical Programming with Equilibrium Constraints):** Reformulate as a single constrained optimization.
SKILL.md
npx skills add https://github.com/brycewang-stanford/awesome-agent-skills-for-empirical-research --skill structural-modeling

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repo stars3.2k
Last updatedAugust 4, 2026
Repositorybrycewang-stanford/awesome-agent-skills-for-empirical-research

What it does

Specify, estimate, and debug structural econometric models like BLP demand, dynamic discrete choice, and auction models.

Who is it for?

Implementing and debugging optimization-based structural econometric estimators.

Skip if: Reduced-form causal inference (use causal-inference skill) or standard regression (use statsmodels/linearmodels).

When should I use this skill?

The user is building, estimating, or debugging a structural model with moment conditions, NFXP, MPEC, or BLP.

What you get

Correctly specified structural estimators with recovered parameters and diagnosed convergence.

  • structural estimation code
  • estimated structural parameters

By the numbers

  • 6 structural methods in quick-reference table

Files

SKILL.mdMarkdownGitHub ↗

Structural Modeling

Reference for implementing structural econometric models: from economic model to moment conditions to estimated parameters. Covers the full workflow of taking a theoretical model, deriving its empirical content, and recovering structural parameters from data.

When to Use This Skill

Use when the user is:

  • Specifying a structural model and deriving moment conditions
  • Implementing NFXP or MPEC estimation routines
  • Working with BLP-style demand systems (random coefficients logit)
  • Building dynamic discrete choice models (Rust, Hotz-Miller CCP)
  • Estimating auction models (first-price, ascending, common value)
  • Debugging convergence failures in structural estimation
  • Choosing between estimation approaches for a given model

Skip when:

  • The task is reduced-form causal inference (use causal-inference skill)
  • The task is pure simulation design (use numerical-auditor agent)
  • The user just needs standard regression (statsmodels/linearmodels suffice)

Quick Reference: Structural Methods

MethodUse CaseKey PackageEstimator
NFXPDynamic discrete choice (small state space)scipy.optimizeMLE / GMM
MPECDynamic discrete choice (large state space, slow inner loop)cyipopt (IPOPT)MLE / GMM
BLPDifferentiated products demand with RC logitpyblpGMM (2-step)
CCP (Hotz-Miller)Dynamic models, counterfactuals not neededscipy2-step semiparametric
GPVFirst-price auctions, nonparametric valuesscipyNonparametric
Ascending auctionEnglish auctions, private valuesscipyMLE on order statistics

The Structural Estimation Workflow

Every structural estimation follows the same logical arc:

Economic Model → Equilibrium/Decision Rule → Observable Implications
    → Moment Conditions → Estimator → Optimization → Inference

Step 1: Model Specification

Define primitives clearly before writing any code:

# model_spec.py — Document structural primitives
"""
Model: Single-agent optimal stopping (Rust 1987 bus engine replacement)

State:    x_t ∈ {0, 1, ..., X_max}  (mileage bin)
Action:   a_t ∈ {0, 1}  (0 = maintain, 1 = replace)
Flow payoff:
    u(x, 0; θ) = -θ_1 * x - θ_2 * x²     (maintenance cost)
    u(x, 1; θ) = -RC                        (replacement cost)
Discount:  β = 0.9999 (fixed)
Shocks:    ε ~ Type 1 Extreme Value (logit errors)
"""

Document these before writing estimation code: agents, information, timing, payoff functional form, equilibrium concept.

Step 2: Derive Moment Conditions

SourceExampleEstimator
Optimality conditions (FOCs)Euler equations, Bellman optimalityGMM
Equilibrium restrictionsMarket clearing, Nash conditionsGMM / ML
Distributional assumptionsChoice probabilities under logit errorsMLE
Exclusion restrictionsCost shifters excluded from demandIV-GMM

Key question: Just-identified → method of moments; over-identified → GMM with optimal weighting matrix; under-identified → revisit assumptions.

NFXP vs MPEC

Two dominant paradigms for models with latent quantities (unobserved heterogeneity, future expectations, equilibrium objects):

NFXP (Nested Fixed-Point): Solve the model in an inner loop for each parameter guess, evaluate likelihood/moments in an outer loop. Conceptually simple; inner loop must fully converge at every iteration — requires tight tolerance (1e-12, not 1e-6; see Su & Judd 2012).

MPEC (Mathematical Programming with Equilibrium Constraints): Reformulate as a single constrained optimization. No inner loop — solver handles everything; can be faster for large state spaces; requires IPOPT or KNITRO.

FactorFavors NFXPFavors MPEC
State spaceSmall (< 500 states)Large (> 1000 states)
Inner loopFast convergence (rate < 0.9)Slow or fragile
Solver availabilityscipy.optimize sufficientIPOPT/KNITRO available
DebuggingEasier — isolate inner vs outerHarder to diagnose constraint violations

For full NFXP and MPEC code (Rust 1987 bus engine model), see references/estimation-methods.md.

BLP Demand Estimation

BLP (Berry, Levinsohn, Pakes 1995) is the workhorse for differentiated products demand. Use PyBLP whenever possible — it handles the difficult numerical details correctly.

import pyblp

# Define the problem
problem = pyblp.Problem(
    product_formulations=(
        pyblp.Formulation('1 + prices + x1 + x2'),       # linear (β)
        pyblp.Formulation('1 + prices + x1'),              # random coefficients (Σ)
    ),
    product_data=product_data,
    agent_data=agent_data
)

# Solve — always use multiple starting values; BLP objective is non-convex
results = problem.solve(
    sigma=sigma_init,
    optimization=pyblp.Optimization('l-bfgs-b', {'gtol': 1e-8}),
    iteration=pyblp.Iteration('squarem', {'atol': 1e-14}),
    method='2s'
)

For the full multi-start loop, two-step GMM, elasticity checks, instrument selection, and marginal cost computation, see references/estimation-methods.md.

BLP Diagnostics Checklist:

  • [ ] First-stage F > 10 for price instruments
  • [ ] Run 10+ random starts (objective is non-convex)
  • [ ] Own-price elasticities all negative: results.compute_elasticities('prices')
  • [ ] All markets converged: results.fp_converged.all()
  • [ ] Marginal costs positive: results.compute_costs()
  • [ ] Inner loop atol <= 1e-14 (tighter is safer)

Dynamic Discrete Choice

Rust (1987) NFXP: Full solution — solve the Bellman equation by value function iteration at every outer iteration. Use for models where counterfactuals require the full model.

Hotz-Miller CCP: Two-step semiparametric approach. Step 1: estimate conditional choice probabilities nonparametrically. Step 2: form pseudo-value functions for a linear regression. Faster; less efficient; sufficient when counterfactuals are not needed.

FeatureFull Solution (NFXP/MPEC)CCP (Hotz-Miller)
Computational costHigh (solve DP at each θ)Low (no DP solving)
EfficiencyEfficient (MLE)Less efficient (2-step)
CounterfactualsNatural (full model available)Must resolve for new policies

For full CCP implementation code, see references/estimation-methods.md.

Auction Models

First-price sealed-bid (GPV): Guerre, Perrigne, Vuong (2000) — invert the bidding equilibrium condition v(b) = b + G(b)/((n-1)g(b)) to recover latent values nonparametrically from observed bids.

Ascending (English): In IPV setting, transaction price = second-highest value. Use MLE on order statistics to recover the value distribution.

Common value: Requires accounting for winner's curse. Li-Perrigne-Vuong (2002) approach; typically requires parametric assumptions.

For full GPV estimator code, ascending auction MLE, and validation diagnostics, see references/estimation-methods.md.

Method Selection

When to use structural vs. reduced-form:

  • Structural: Need to evaluate counterfactual policies, recover preference parameters, or model strategic interactions
  • Reduced-form: Need a credible causal estimate of a specific treatment effect with minimal assumptions

Within structural: 1. Static discrete choice with heterogeneity? → BLP / mixed logit 2. Dynamic single-agent optimal stopping? → NFXP (small state) or MPEC (large state) 3. Counterfactuals not needed, data rich? → CCP estimator 4. Auction data? → GPV (first-price) or order statistics MLE (ascending) 5. Market-level entry/exit? → Bresnahan-Reiss or Ciliberto-Tamer (see game-theory skill)

Common Anti-Patterns

Anti-PatternProblemBetter Approach
Estimating β jointly with payoff parametersNotoriously poorly identified; flat objectiveFix β at reasonable value (0.95, 0.99) or calibrate externally
Loose inner loop tolerance (1e-6)Optimizer sees noise; spurious convergenceUse 1e-12 or tighter; see Su & Judd (2012)
Single starting valueStructural objectives are non-convexUse 10+ random starts plus grid search
Ignoring simulation error in simulated MLE/MSMBiased standard errorsUse enough draws (R >> N) or bias-correct
Numerical gradients with default step sizeInaccurate for poorly scaled problemsUse central differences or analytic gradients (JAX)
Hard-coding state space discretizationResults sensitive to grid coarsenessTest sensitivity to grid refinement

JAX Acceleration

For GPU-accelerated structural estimation (JIT compilation, autodiff, vmap for simulated moments, differentiable fixed-point iteration with lax.while_loop), see references/jax-guide.md.

Integration with compound-science

  • numerical-auditor — Systematic convergence review: gradient norms, conditioning, tolerance sensitivity
  • numerical-auditor — DGP formalization, Monte Carlo studies, convergence review
  • identification-critic — Verify equilibrium existence, uniqueness, stability, comparative statics
  • econometric-reviewer — Reviews moment-matching strategy, parameter identification, sensitivity to targets
  • /estimate — Full estimation pipeline with quality gates

Additional References

  • references/estimation-methods.md — Full code: BLP multi-start, NFXP Bellman solver, MPEC cyipopt formulation, Hotz-Miller CCP, GPV auction estimator
  • references/diagnostics-and-se.md — Convergence failure diagnosis, numerical safeguards (logsumexp, conditioning), GMM sandwich SEs, parametric bootstrap
  • references/jax-guide.md — JAX JIT/autodiff for structural objectives, vmap for simulation, lax.while_loop for differentiable contraction mappings

Related skills

FAQ

When should I choose NFXP vs MPEC?

NFXP suits small state spaces with fast inner-loop convergence; MPEC suits large state spaces or slow, fragile inner loops and needs IPOPT or KNITRO.

What package does it recommend for BLP?

PyBLP, which handles the difficult numerical details of random-coefficients logit demand correctly.

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