No Leverage

Name: No Leverage
Author: kangarooking

kangarooking/buffett-letters-skill

47 installs
65 repo stars
Updated April 17, 2026
kangarooking/buffett-letters-skill

Recognize leverage as a business risk multiplier, not a wealth tool.

About

Debt amplifies both gains and losses. Avoiding leverage protects against black-swan events and preserves optionality during crises.

Debt risk multiplication
Crisis resilience

No Leverage by the numbers

47 all-time installs (skills.sh)
+1 installs in the week ending Aug 2, 2026 (Skillselion tracking)
Ranked #598 of 1,106 Finance & Trading skills by installs in the Skillselion catalog
Data as of Aug 5, 2026 (Skillselion catalog sync)

npx skills add https://github.com/kangarooking/buffett-letters-skill --skill no-leverage

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Installs	47
repo stars	★ 65
Last updated	April 17, 2026
Repository	kangarooking/buffett-letters-skill ↗

What it does

Recognize leverage as a business risk multiplier, not a wealth tool.

Files

SKILL.mdMarkdownGitHub ↗

不用杠杆 / 财务堡垒

R — 原文 (Reading)

"There is simply no telling how far stocks can fall in a short period." (2017)

"A string of wonderful numbers times zero will always equal zero. Don't count on getting rich twice." — Munger (2022)

I — 方法论骨架

核心逻辑：任何正数乘以零 = 零。

杠杆在顺利时放大收益，但一次灾难足以永久出局
伯克希尔股价历史上有4次下跌37%-59%——如果用了杠杆任何一次都足以出局
因此：永远保持充足现金（$300亿+），永远不依赖陌生人的善意
"宁取颠簸的15%也不要平滑的12%"——但前提是15%的路径上不会归零

A1 — 书中的应用

案例: 伯克希尔四次大跌

使用: 1973-75(-59.1%), 1987(-37.1%), 1998-2000(-48.9%), 2008-09(-50.7%)
结果: 如果用了杠杆，任何一次都足以永久出局。这是"不用杠杆"最强有力的实证论据

A2 — 触发场景

1. 考虑用保证金/贷款买股票 2. 有人建议"低成本融资投资" 3. 评估一家公司的财务安全性 4. 决定是否应该保持现金储备

语言信号

"要不要加杠杆？"
"利率这么低，借钱投资划算吗？"
"用保证金买合算吗？"
"为什么保持这么多现金？"

与相邻 skill 的区分

与 margin-of-safety 的区别：安全边际是单个投资的保护，不用杠杆是整体财务策略

E — 可执行步骤

1. 计算归零概率

完成标准：在杠杆X倍下，资产需要跌多少才会爆仓？这个跌幅历史上出现过几次？

2. 检查能否承受最大回撤（不加杠杆）

完成标准：如果资产跌50%，你是否仍然不需要被迫卖出？

3. 建立现金缓冲

完成标准：保持至少6个月生活费的现金，永远不用完

B — 边界

不用杠杆 ≠ 不借钱——巴菲特用保险浮存金（一种"杠杆"），但成本为负且不可被"挤兑"
极少数情况下杠杆可能是合理的（如套利，有确定性时间表）
作者盲点：巴菲特有保险浮存金这种独特杠杆——普通人可能永远无法获得低成本杠杆

---

审计信息

验证通过: V1 ✓ / V2 ✓ / V3 ✓
蒸馏时间: 2026-04-16

{
  "skill": "no-leverage",
  "version": "0.1.0",
  "source_book": "《巴菲特致股东的信》 — 沃伦·巴菲特",
  "darwin_compatible": true,
  "test_cases": [
    {
      "id": "should-trigger-01",
      "type": "should_trigger",
      "prompt": "利率这么低，借钱投资划算吗",
      "expected_behavior": "应激活 no-leverage，指出任何正数乘以零=零，低利率不降低归零风险",
      "notes": "低成本杠杆的诱惑"
    },
    {
      "id": "should-trigger-02",
      "type": "should_trigger",
      "prompt": "我有90%把握这只股票会涨，要不要加杠杆",
      "expected_behavior": "应激活 no-leverage，指出10%失败概率×杠杆=永久出局",
      "notes": "高确信度≠杠杆合理"
    },
    {
      "id": "should-trigger-03",
      "type": "should_trigger",
      "prompt": "用保证金买股票合算吗",
      "expected_behavior": "应激活 no-leverage，展示伯克希尔4次37%-59%下跌的数据",
      "notes": "保证金交易的风险"
    },
    {
      "id": "should-not-trigger-01",
      "type": "should_not_trigger",
      "prompt": "这个公司资产负债率怎么样",
      "expected_behavior": "不应激活本skill，这是公司财务分析，不是个人杠杆决策",
      "notes": "诱饵：公司财务≠个人杠杆"
    },
    {
      "id": "should-not-trigger-02",
      "type": "should_not_trigger",
      "prompt": "帮我选一只基金",
      "expected_behavior": "不应激活本skill，这是基金选择请求",
      "notes": "诱饵：基金选择≠杠杆决策"
    },
    {
      "id": "edge-01",
      "type": "edge_case",
      "prompt": "有个套利机会，有确定时间表，可以用杠杆吗",
      "expected_behavior": "应指出极少数情况下（如套利有确定性时间表）杠杆可能合理，但风险仍在",
      "notes": "边界：杠杆的极少数合理场景"
    }
  ],
  "minimum_pass_rate": 0.8
}