Development Estimation

Development Estimation

Overview

Create consistent, defensible estimates by breaking scope into components, identifying risks, and providing confidence intervals.

When to Use

• Estimating feature or project scope
• Providing effort or complexity estimates
• Delivering risk-aware breakdowns

Avoid when:

• The task is trivial or a rough gut-check is sufficient
• Requirements are unknown and need discovery first

Quick Reference

Workflow

1. Define scope and estimation type (time/effort/complexity). 2. Load the estimation reference for structure. 3. Break into components and dependencies. 4. Add risks and confidence intervals. 5. Deliver estimate with assumptions.

Output

• Estimate with breakdown and confidence interval
• Assumptions, risks, and validation notes

Common Mistakes

• Estimating without clear scope
• Ignoring risk and dependency factors
• Overstating precision beyond available data

Reference: estimate

/analyze:estimate - Development Estimation

Triggers

• Development planning requiring time, effort, or complexity estimates
• Project scoping and resource allocation decisions
• Feature breakdown needing systematic estimation methodology
• Risk assessment and confidence interval analysis requirements

Usage

/analyze:estimate [target] [--type time|effort|complexity] [--unit hours|days|weeks] [--breakdown]

Behavioral Flow

1. Analyze: Examine scope, complexity factors, dependencies, and framework patterns 2. Calculate: Apply estimation methodology with historical benchmarks and complexity scoring 3. Validate: Cross-reference estimates with project patterns and domain expertise 4. Present: Provide detailed breakdown with confidence intervals and risk assessment 5. Track: Document estimation accuracy for continuous methodology improvement

Key behaviors:

• Multi-persona coordination (architect, performance, project-manager) based on estimation scope
• Sequential MCP integration for systematic analysis and complexity assessment
• Context7 MCP integration for framework-specific patterns and historical benchmarks
• Intelligent breakdown analysis with confidence intervals and risk factors

MCP Integration

• Sequential MCP: Complex multi-step estimation analysis and systematic complexity assessment
• Context7 MCP: Framework-specific estimation patterns and historical benchmark data
• Persona Coordination: Architect (design complexity), Performance (optimization effort), Project Manager (timeline)

Personas (Thinking Modes)

• architect: Design complexity assessment, component organization, integration points
• performance-engineer: Performance optimization effort, technical debt evaluation
• project-manager: Timeline estimation, resource allocation, risk assessment

Delegation Protocol

When to delegate (use Task tool):

• ✅ Large project estimation (>10 components)
• ✅ Requires deep codebase analysis
• ✅ Multi-domain complexity assessment
• ✅ Detailed breakdown requested (--breakdown flag)

Available subagents:

• Explore: Codebase complexity analysis, pattern discovery, scope evaluation
• general-purpose: Estimation calculation, breakdown generation, risk assessment

Delegation strategy for comprehensive estimation:

<function_calls>
<invoke name="Task">
  <subagent_type>Explore</subagent_type>
  <description>Analyze codebase for estimation context</description>
  <prompt>
    Explore for estimation:
    - Component complexity
    - Dependencies and integrations
    - Framework patterns
    - Existing implementations
    - Technical debt factors
    Thoroughness: medium
  </prompt>
</invoke>
<invoke name="Task">
  <subagent_type>general-purpose</subagent_type>
  <description>Generate detailed estimation</description>
  <prompt>
    Estimate: [target]
    Type: [time|effort|complexity]
    Unit: [hours|days|weeks]
    - Apply architect + performance + PM personas
    - Use Sequential for systematic analysis
    - Use Context7 for framework benchmarks
    - Provide confidence intervals
    - Include risk factors
    - Generate breakdown if requested
  </prompt>
</invoke>
</function_calls>

When NOT to delegate (use direct tools):

• ❌ Simple task estimation (<5 steps)
• ❌ Quick complexity score (no detailed analysis)
• ❌ Rough estimate (order of magnitude)

Tool Coordination

• Task tool: Delegates for large/complex estimation requiring codebase analysis
• Read/Grep/Glob: Codebase analysis (direct for simple, by subagent for complex)
• TodoWrite: Estimation breakdown tracking
• Bash: Project analysis (by subagent when needed)
• Sequential MCP: Systematic estimation methodology
• Context7 MCP: Framework-specific benchmarks

Key Patterns

• Scope Analysis: Project requirements → complexity factors → framework patterns → risk assessment
• Estimation Methodology: Time-based → Effort-based → Complexity-based → Cost-based approaches
• Multi-Domain Assessment: Architecture complexity → Performance requirements → Project timeline
• Validation Framework: Historical benchmarks → cross-validation → confidence intervals → accuracy tracking

Examples

Feature Development Estimation

/analyze:estimate "user authentication system" --type time --unit days --breakdown
# Systematic analysis: Database design (2 days) + Backend API (3 days) + Frontend UI (2 days) + Testing (1 day)
# Total: 8 days with 85% confidence interval

Project Complexity Assessment

/analyze:estimate "migrate monolith to microservices" --type complexity --breakdown
# Architecture complexity analysis with risk factors and dependency mapping
# Multi-persona coordination for comprehensive assessment

Performance Optimization Effort

/analyze:estimate "optimize application performance" --type effort --unit hours
# Performance persona analysis with benchmark comparisons
# Effort breakdown by optimization category and expected impact

Boundaries

Will:

• Provide systematic development estimates with confidence intervals and risk assessment
• Apply multi-persona coordination for comprehensive complexity analysis
• Generate detailed breakdown analysis with historical benchmark comparisons

Will Not:

• Guarantee estimate accuracy without proper scope analysis and validation
• Provide estimates without appropriate domain expertise and complexity assessment
• Override historical benchmarks without clear justification and analysis