Calci Prediction Market

Calci Prediction Market (Kalshi)

Calci’s prediction-market layer is built on Kalshi. This skill provides the domain model, trading mechanics, and API conventions you need to reason about Calci/Kalshi data and to explain it clearly to users.

Core Mental Model

1. Binary event contracts

• Every tradable contract is Yes/No on a real‑world outcome.
• A winning side pays $1, losing side pays $0.
• Prices between $0.01–$0.99 represent implied probability.

2. Implied probability

• If a Yes contract trades at $0.74, the market implies ~74% chance of Yes.
• No price is complementary (roughly 1 − Yes, ignoring fees/spread).

3. Fully collateralized

• Users pay maximum loss up‑front. No margin/leverage.
• You can never lose more than you spend on contracts.

Data Hierarchy (Kalshi → Calci)

Kalshi uses a strict hierarchy:

• Series → template for recurring markets (shared rules/settlement).
• Event → specific instance within a series (a real‑world occurrence).
• Market → single binary contract within an event (one Yes/No outcome).

Calci mirrors these objects. When you see “market” in Calci UI, clarify whether it’s an event page (container) or a specific market outcome (binary leg).

Market Objects: What Fields Mean

When interpreting Calci/Kalshi market JSON:

• ticker: unique identifier (string).
• event_ticker / series_ticker: parent identifiers.
• title / subtitle: human‑readable question and clarification.
• yes_bid / yes_ask (cents) and _dollars: best prices to buy/sell Yes.
• no_bid / no_ask: best prices to buy/sell No.
• last_price: last traded Yes price.
• volume / volume_24h / open_interest: activity and outstanding contracts.
• open_time / close_time / expiration_time: lifecycle timestamps.
• status: initialized, active/open, closed, settled.
• result / settlement_value: set after resolution.

Trading Mechanics to Explain

• Order book on both Yes and No sides.
• Quick/market order crosses current spread for immediate fill.
• Limit order rests at a chosen price; may add liquidity.
• Closing a position = taking the opposite side later (sell Yes or buy No).
• Mutually exclusive events contain multiple markets where at most one can settle Yes.

Fees on Kalshi are variable/quadratic, roughly a percent of potential profit; maker orders may be discounted.

Settlement & Resolution

• Each series defines official settlement sources and rules.
• Markets usually close before the strike/decision time, then settle after confirmation.
• Some markets can resolve early if can_close_early is true.

When asked “how does this resolve?”, reference the series rules and settlement source, then restate in plain language.

API Conventions You Should Use

Public data (no auth needed):

• GET /series
• GET /events (events include their markets)
• GET /markets
• GET /market/{ticker}
• GET /market/orderbook
• GET /market/candlesticks
• GET /market/trades
• GET /exchange/status

Trading/account (auth required):

• POST /orders, DELETE /orders/{id}, GET /orders/{id}
• POST /order-groups and related order‑group endpoints
• GET /portfolio/balance, GET /portfolio/positions, GET /portfolio/fills

Auth uses an API key id plus RSA signature headers:

• KALSHI-ACCESS-KEY
• KALSHI-ACCESS-TIMESTAMP
• KALSHI-ACCESS-SIGNATURE

Real‑time updates arrive via WebSocket subscriptions to tickers.

How to Apply This Skill When Answering

1. Map Calci terms → Kalshi terms if the user is vague. 2. Always distinguish Series/Event/Market and restate which level you’re discussing. 3. Convert price to probability explicitly when helpful. 4. Explain both sides (Yes/No) and spreads when discussing pricing or order books. 5. Cite rules + settlement source for resolution questions. 6. Stay neutral: describe mechanics and risks; don’t give financial advice.

Examples

• “This Calci market is a Kalshi market ticker. It’s a binary contract paying $1 if Yes. At $0.62, the market implies ~62% Yes probability.”
• “The event is mutually exclusive, so each candidate outcome is a separate market. Exactly one can settle Yes.”
• “To get real‑time prices, subscribe to the market tickers on the Kalshi WebSocket; Calci mirrors those updates.”

For more detail, see reference.md.

Calci Prediction Market Reference (Kalshi)

This reference expands on SKILL.md with more complete domain context.

What Kalshi Is

Kalshi is a CFTC‑regulated U.S. prediction‑market exchange. Users trade binary event contracts about real‑world outcomes. Contracts settle at $1 (Yes) or $0 (No). Prices move between $0.01 and $0.99 and can be read as probabilities.

Key properties:

• Regulated exchange (Designated Contract Market).
• Nationwide U.S. legality via commodities regulation.
• KYC/AML required for all users.
• Full collateralization: no leverage or margin.

Market Categories

Kalshi lists markets across economics, politics/policy, weather/climate, some sports/entertainment, and other real‑world indicators. Each series is reviewed for compliance before launch.

Series → Events → Markets

• Series: recurring template with shared rules and settlement sources.
• Example: CPI inflation releases, weekly jobless claims, daily rainfall.
• Event: one instance inside a series, often date‑keyed.
• Example: “CPI for October 2025.”
• Market: one binary outcome contract inside an event.
• Example: “CPI ≥ 3% YoY (Yes/No).”

Events may be single‑market or multi‑market. Multi‑market events may be mutually exclusive, meaning only one market outcome can resolve Yes.

Pricing and Order Books

Each market has linked Yes/No order books. Public fields:

• yes_bid / yes_ask: best prices to buy/sell Yes.
• no_bid / no_ask: best prices to buy/sell No.
• last_price: last Yes trade.
• spread: difference between best bid and ask; often 1–2¢ in liquid markets.

Trading rules:

• Buying Yes at price P costs P dollars per contract.
• Buying No is equivalent to selling Yes; effective cost ~1 − P.
• Closing a position is done by taking the opposite side later.

Fees

Kalshi uses a variable (quadratic) fee based on potential profit. Average fees are typically under ~2% of trade value. Resting limit orders that add liquidity may have reduced or zero fees.

Settlement

Each series includes:

• contract_terms_url
• settlement_sources (official URLs)
• rules_primary / rules_secondary

Markets close at close_time, then settle once official data confirms the result. After settlement, result is set to yes or no, and winners receive $1 per contract.

Some markets support early settlement if the outcome becomes certain.

Risk Controls

Because Kalshi is regulated:

• Position limits may apply (risk_limit_cents).
• Some markets include additional_prohibitions for insider‑risk cases.
• Monitoring exists for manipulation/insider trading.

API Basics

Public REST endpoints

• GET /series, GET /events, GET /markets
• GET /market/{ticker}
• GET /market/orderbook
• GET /market/candlesticks, GET /market/trades
• GET /exchange/status

Orderbook responses contain Yes bids and No bids arrays of [price, quantity].

Private REST endpoints

• POST /orders (limit orders)
• DELETE /orders/{id} / batch cancels
• POST /order-groups (OCO/filled‑limit coordination)
• GET /portfolio/balance, GET /portfolio/positions, GET /portfolio/fills

Authentication

Requests to private endpoints require an API key id and RSA signature:

• KALSHI-ACCESS-KEY
• KALSHI-ACCESS-TIMESTAMP
• KALSHI-ACCESS-SIGNATURE

Streaming

Kalshi provides:

• WebSocket for live price/orderbook/trade updates.
• FIX gateway for low‑latency institutional trading.

Comparisons (High Level)

• Polymarket: crypto‑native AMM/orderbook hybrid, historically unregulated for U.S. users; trades in USDC.
• PredictIt: legacy political market with strict caps; no‑action relief revoked.
• Betting exchanges: similar mechanics but regulated as gambling outside the U.S.

Kalshi’s differentiator is regulated USD‑cleared, order‑book‑based prediction markets.