Market Environment Analysis
Interpret macro regimes, trend structure, and headline economic releases before sizing trades or building market-aware agents.
Overview
Market Environment Analysis is an agent skill most often used in Idea (also Validate, Grow) that structures trend, risk regime, and economic-indicator interpretation for trading decisions.
Install
npx skills add https://github.com/tradermonty/claude-trading-skills --skill market-environment-analysisWhat is this skill?
- Trend identification checklist: higher highs/lows, MA direction, and volume confirmation
- Risk-on vs risk-off environment traits including VIX, safe havens, and EM behavior
- US employment interpretation bands for NFP surprises and unemployment rate thresholds
- Inflation read framework for CPI and PPI versus Fed-style 2% targets
- Range-bound market pattern notes alongside directional regimes
- NFP +200k or more above expectations framed as strong employment / hike bias
- CPI 2% YoY cited as Fed target reference level
- Unemployment 3.5% or below noted as near full employment band
Adoption & trust: 1k installs on skills.sh; 1.8k GitHub stars; 2/3 security scanners passed (skills.sh audits).
What problem does it solve?
You react to headlines and charts ad hoc without a shared framework for trend, risk-on/off, or what NFP and CPI surprises imply.
Who is it for?
Indie traders and builders of Claude-assisted market briefs who need consistent regime vocabulary before automating signals.
Skip if: Licensed advisory workflows requiring personalized investment advice or live execution without separate data and risk systems.
When should I use this skill?
When analyzing market trends, risk-on/risk-off conditions, or interpreting US employment and inflation releases for trading context.
What do I get? / Deliverables
You classify the current market environment and indicator surprises with explicit pattern notes you can feed into plans, alerts, or research docs.
- Regime classification notes
- Indicator surprise interpretation summary
Recommended Skills
Journey fit
Spans multiple journey phases - primary shelf plus alternate fits below.
Environment read is the first committed research step for trading products and personal risk—it precedes full build of bots, journals, or dashboards. Research is the canonical shelf because the skill catalogs trend, risk-on/risk-off, and CPI/NFP interpretation—not execution, brokerage integration, or live monitoring.
Where it fits
Label risk-on/off before choosing which asset class your MVP scanner will cover.
Decide whether your bot needs regime filters using the trend and range-bound checklist.
Draft a weekly macro section that cites consistent CPI and employment interpretation bands.
How it compares
Use as a structured macro/tape reading playbook instead of generic web-research skills with no finance-specific indicator thresholds.
Common Questions / FAQ
Who is market-environment-analysis for?
It is for solo traders and developers building finance agents, newsletters, or scanners who want repeatable environment and indicator interpretation.
When should I use market-environment-analysis?
Use it in Idea when researching a trading idea, in Validate when scoping a bot’s regime filters, and in Grow when drafting recurring market commentary.
Is market-environment-analysis safe to install?
Review the Security Audits panel on this page; treat outputs as research aid not financial advice and verify numbers against your data vendor.
SKILL.md
READMESKILL.md - Market Environment Analysis
# Market Analysis Patterns ## Market Pattern Analysis ### Trend Identification 1. **Uptrend** - Higher highs and higher lows - Moving averages trending upward - Price rises accompanied by volume increases 2. **Downtrend** - Lower highs and lower lows - Moving averages trending downward - Decreased volume on bounces 3. **Range-Bound Market** - Trading within defined range - Moving averages sideways - Declining volume trend ### Risk-On / Risk-Off Assessment #### Risk-On Environment Characteristics - Stock markets rising (especially emerging markets) - High-yield currency buying (AUD, NZD, etc.) - VIX index declining - Interest rates rising - Risk assets like crude oil rising #### Risk-Off Environment Characteristics - Flight to safe assets (yen buying, Swiss franc buying) - Gold prices rising - Bond buying (yields falling) - VIX index rising - Emerging market currencies and stocks selling ## Economic Indicator Interpretation ### Employment Data (US) - **Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)** - +200k or more above expectations: Strong employment, rate hike expectations - -100k or more below expectations: Employment deterioration, rate cut expectations - **Unemployment Rate** - 3.5% or below: Near full employment - 4.0% or above: Signs of employment environment deterioration ### Inflation Indicators - **CPI (Consumer Price Index)** - 2% YoY: Fed target level - 3%+: Inflation alert - Below 1%: Deflation risk - **PPI (Producer Price Index)** - Important as CPI leading indicator - Captures upstream inflation ### Central Bank Policy - **Fed (Federal Reserve)** - Watch dot plot - Policy rate outlook changes - **BOJ (Bank of Japan)** - YCC (Yield Curve Control) policy - ETF purchase trends - **ECB (European Central Bank)** - 2% inflation target - Response to regional disparities ## Inter-Market Correlation Analysis ### Positive Correlation Patterns - Stocks ↑ → Interest rates ↑ (strong economy) - USD/JPY ↑ → Nikkei ↑ (exporters favorable) - Crude oil ↑ → Inflation expectations ↑ ### Inverse Correlation Patterns - Interest rates ↑ → Bond prices ↓ - Dollar ↑ → Gold prices ↓ - VIX ↑ → Stocks ↓ ## Seasonality & Anomalies ### Monthly Patterns - **January Effect**: New year fund inflows - **Sell in May**: Pre-summer doldrums position closing - **September**: Historically weak month - **December**: Tax-loss selling, Santa Claus rally ### Day-of-Week Effects - **Monday**: Weekend risk pricing - **Friday**: Position adjustments ### Fiscal Year-End - **End of March**: Japanese corporate fiscal year, repatriation flows - **End of December**: Western corporate fiscal year ## Technical Indicator Usage ### Trend Indicators - **Moving Averages**: 25-day, 75-day, 200-day line relationships - **MACD**: Identifying trend turning points - **Bollinger Bands**: Volatility and contrarian entry points ### Oscillators - **RSI**: Over 70 overbought, below 30 oversold - **Stochastics**: Short-term turning points - **Volume**: Confirming price movement reliability ## Sentiment Analysis ### Capturing Investor Psychology - **Put/Call Ratio**: Option market skew - **Bull/Bear Ratio**: Investor surveys - **Fear & Greed Index**: CNN Fear & Greed Index ### News Flow Analysis - Headline tone changes - Media coverage frequency - Social media buzzwords # Market Indicators Reference ## Major Stock Indices ### Japan - **Nikkei 225**: Stock price average of 225 representative stocks on Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime - Key levels: 30,000, 35,000, 40,000 yen - Moving averages: Emphasize 25-day, 75-day, 200-day lines - **TOPIX**: Market-cap weighted average of all Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime stocks - Better reflects overall market - Heavily influenced by banking/financial sector ### United States - **S&P 500**: 500 large-cap US stocks - Most representative US stock index - Key levels: 4,000, 4,500, 5,000 points - **NASDAQ**: Tech-focused - Reflects mega-cap tech stock trends like GAFAM -