Scenario Analyzer

Scenario Analyzer

Overview

This skill analyzes medium-to-long-term (18-month) investment scenarios starting from a news headline. It invokes two specialized agents in sequence (scenario-analyst and strategy-reviewer) and integrates multi-angle analysis with a critical review into a comprehensive report.

When to Use This Skill

Use this skill when:

• You want to analyze the medium-to-long-term investment impact of a news headline
• You want to construct multiple 18-month scenarios
• You want sector/stock impacts organized into 1st/2nd/3rd-order effects
• You need a comprehensive analysis that includes a second opinion

Examples:

/scenario-analyzer "Fed raises interest rates by 50bp, signals more hikes ahead"
/scenario-analyzer "China announces new tariffs on US semiconductors"
/scenario-analyzer "OPEC+ agrees to cut oil production by 2 million barrels per day"

Prerequisites

• API Keys: None (uses only WebSearch/WebFetch)
• MCP Servers: None
• Dependencies: The scenario-analyst and strategy-reviewer agents must be available via the Task tool

Architecture

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│                    Skill (orchestrator)                              │
│                                                                      │
│  Phase 1: Preparation                                                │
│  ├─ Headline parsing                                                 │
│  ├─ Event type classification                                        │
│  └─ Reference loading                                                │
│                                                                      │
│  Phase 2: Agent invocation                                           │
│  ├─ scenario-analyst (primary analysis)                              │
│  └─ strategy-reviewer (second opinion)                               │
│                                                                      │
│  Phase 3: Integration & report generation                            │
│  └─ reports/scenario_analysis_<topic>_YYYYMMDD.md                   │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

Workflow

Phase 1: Preparation

Step 1.1: Headline Parsing

Parse the headline provided by the user.

1. Headline check

• Confirm a headline was passed as an argument
• If not provided, ask the user for input

2. Keyword extraction

• Key entities (company names, country names, institution names)
• Numeric data (rates, prices, quantities)
• Actions (raise, cut, announce, agree, etc.)

Step 1.2: Event Type Classification

Classify the headline into one of the following categories:

Step 1.3: Reference Loading

Based on the event type, load the relevant references:

Read references/headline_event_patterns.md
Read references/sector_sensitivity_matrix.md
Read references/scenario_playbooks.md

Reference contents:

• headline_event_patterns.md: Historical event patterns and market reactions
• sector_sensitivity_matrix.md: Event × sector impact-magnitude matrix
• scenario_playbooks.md: Scenario-construction templates and best practices

---

Phase 2: Agent Invocation

Step 2.1: Invoke scenario-analyst

Use the Agent tool to invoke the primary analysis agent.

Agent tool:
- subagent_type: "scenario-analyst"
- prompt: |
    Perform an 18-month scenario analysis for the following headline.

    ## Target Headline
    [the input headline]

    ## Event Type
    [classification result]

    ## Reference Information
    [summary of the loaded references]

    ## Analysis Requirements
    1. Use WebSearch to collect related news from the past 2 weeks
    2. Construct 3 scenarios — Base/Bull/Bear (probabilities sum to 100%)
    3. Analyze 1st/2nd/3rd-order impacts by sector
    4. Select 3-5 positive- and 3-5 negative-impact stocks (US market only)
    5. Output everything in English

Expected output:

• List of related news articles
• Details of the 3 scenarios (Base/Bull/Bear)
• Sector impact analysis (1st/2nd/3rd-order)
• Stock recommendation list

Step 2.2: Invoke strategy-reviewer

Using the scenario-analyst's results, invoke the review agent.

Agent tool:
- subagent_type: "strategy-reviewer"
- prompt: |
    Review the following scenario analysis.

    ## Target Headline
    [the input headline]

    ## Analysis Result
    [the full scenario-analyst output]

    ## Review Requirements
    Review from the following angles:
    1. Overlooked sectors/stocks
    2. Validity of the scenario probability allocation
    3. Logical consistency of the impact analysis
    4. Detection of optimism/pessimism bias
    5. Proposal of alternative scenarios
    6. Realism of the timeline

    Output constructive and specific feedback in English.

Expected output:

• Pointing out blind spots
• Opinion on the scenario probabilities
• Pointing out bias
• Proposal of alternative scenarios
• Final recommendations

---

Phase 3: Integration & Report Generation

Step 3.1: Integrate Results

Integrate the output of both agents to produce the final investment judgment.

Integration points: 1. Fill in the blind spots raised in the review 2. Adjust the probability allocation (if needed) 3. Make the final judgment accounting for bias 4. Formulate a concrete action plan

Step 3.2: Generate Report

Generate the final report in the following format and save it to a file.

Save location: reports/scenario_analysis_<topic>_YYYYMMDD.md

# Headline Scenario Analysis Report

**Analyzed at**: YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM
**Target headline**: [the input headline]
**Event type**: [classification category]

---

## 1. Related News Articles
[news list collected by scenario-analyst]

## 2. Scenario Overview (through 18 months out)

### Base Case (XX% probability)
[scenario details]

### Bull Case (XX% probability)
[scenario details]

### Bear Case (XX% probability)
[scenario details]

## 3. Sector / Industry Impact

### 1st-Order Impact (direct)
[impact table]

### 2nd-Order Impact (value chain / related industries)
[impact table]

### 3rd-Order Impact (macro / regulation / technology)
[impact table]

## 4. Stocks Expected to Benefit (3-5 tickers)
[stock table]

## 5. Stocks Expected to Be Hurt (3-5 tickers)
[stock table]

## 6. Second Opinion / Review
[strategy-reviewer output]

## 7. Final Investment Judgment & Implications

### Recommended Actions
[concrete actions informed by the review]

### Risk Factors
[list of key risks]

### Monitoring Points
[indicators / events to follow]

---
**Generated by**: scenario-analyzer skill
**Agents**: scenario-analyst, strategy-reviewer

Step 3.3: Save the Report

1. Create the reports/ directory if it does not exist 2. Save as scenario_analysis_<topic>_YYYYMMDD.md (e.g., scenario_analysis_venezuela_20260104.md) 3. Notify the user that the save completed 4. Do not save directly to the project root

---

Output

This skill generates the following file:

Output contents:

• List of related news articles
• 3 scenarios — Base/Bull/Bear (with probability allocation)
• Sector impact analysis (1st/2nd/3rd-order)
• Positive/negative stock recommendations
• Second opinion / review
• Final investment judgment & implications

Resources

References

• references/headline_event_patterns.md - Event patterns and market reactions
• references/sector_sensitivity_matrix.md - Sector sensitivity matrix
• references/scenario_playbooks.md - Scenario-construction templates

Agents

• scenario-analyst - Primary scenario analysis
• strategy-reviewer - Second opinion / review

---

Important Notes

Language

• All analysis and output are in English
• Stock tickers remain in their standard (English) symbols

Target Market

• Stock selection is US-listed equities only
• ADRs included

Time Horizon

• Scenarios target 18 months
• Described in 3 phases: 0-6 months / 6-12 months / 12-18 months

Probability Allocation

• Base + Bull + Bear = 100%
• Each scenario's probability is described with its rationale

Second Opinion

• Mandatory (always invoke strategy-reviewer)
• Review results are reflected in the final judgment

Output Location (Important)

• Always save under the reports/ directory
• Path: reports/scenario_analysis_<topic>_YYYYMMDD.md
• Example: reports/scenario_analysis_fed_rate_hike_20260104.md
• Create the reports/ directory if it does not exist
• Must not save directly to the project root

---

Quality Checklist

Confirm the following before finalizing the report:

• [ ] Is the headline parsed correctly?
• [ ] Is the event type classification appropriate?
• [ ] Do the 3 scenario probabilities sum to 100%?
• [ ] Are the 1st/2nd/3rd-order impacts logically connected?
• [ ] Is the stock selection backed by concrete rationale?
• [ ] Is the strategy-reviewer review included?
• [ ] Is the final judgment reflecting the review documented?
• [ ] Is the report saved to the correct path?

Headline Event Patterns

This reference documents the typical impact patterns that various event types have on markets. Use it during scenario analysis to infer future developments from past analogous events.

1. Monetary Policy Events

Federal Reserve (FOMC)

Rate Hike

Typical pattern:

• Immediate reaction (0-1 week): Equities dip temporarily, bond yields rise, USD strengthens
• Short term (1-3 months): Growth stocks underperform value stocks
• Medium term (3-12 months): Financials firm, real estate and utilities soft
• Long term (12-18 months): Economic-slowdown concerns may surface

Sector impact:

Historical cases:

• 2022 hiking cycle: Nasdaq -33%, financials relatively resilient
• After Dec 2018 hike: S&P 500 -9% (December), rebound the following January

Rate Cut

Typical pattern:

• Immediate reaction: Equities rise, bond yields fall, USD weakens
• Short term: Growth stocks outperform
• Medium term: Real estate and utilities recover
• Long term: Corporate earnings improve on stimulus effect

Caveats:

• Recession-driven cuts may initially come with falling equities
• Market reaction differs between an "insurance cut" and a "recession response"

QE (Quantitative Easing) / QT (Quantitative Tightening)

QE start:

• Strong tailwind for equities (liquidity injection)
• Benefits all risk assets
• Weaker USD, higher commodities

QT start:

• Headwind for equities as liquidity shrinks
• Especially large impact on speculative assets and small caps
• Tendency toward a stronger USD

European Central Bank (ECB)

Characteristics:

• Large impact on the EUR/USD exchange rate
• Direct impact on European bank stocks
• Peripheral-country spreads (Italy, Spain, etc.) are a key indicator

Bank of Japan (BOJ)

Characteristics:

• Changes to YCC (Yield Curve Control) policy have an extremely large market impact
• Impact on the yen carry trade
• Japanese equities (Nikkei) tend to rise on a weaker yen

2024 YCC adjustment case:

• Raising the 10-year yield cap → sharp yen appreciation, global yields spill over higher

---

2. Geopolitical Events

War / Armed Conflict

Typical pattern:

• Immediate reaction: Equities down, gold up, oil up, sovereign bonds up (flight to safe assets)
• Short term: Defense names rise, energy stocks firm
• Medium term: Impact on supply chains dependent on the conflict region
• Long term: Inflationary pressure, fiscal deterioration

Sector impact:

Historical cases:

• Russia-Ukraine conflict (2022): WTI crude over $130, European gas crisis
• Middle East conflict (2023): Red Sea route risk, higher shipping costs

Economic Sanctions

Impact pattern:

• Hits companies dependent on trade with the targeted country
• Commodity-supply concerns (when the target is a major exporter)
• Benefits to alternative suppliers

Tariffs / Trade Friction

Typical pattern:

• Immediate reaction: Equity market of the targeted country falls, related sectors sold off
• Short term: Earnings concerns for export-dependent companies
• Medium term: Moves to rebuild supply chains
• Long term: Progress of onshoring / friend-shoring

2018-2019 US-China trade friction case:

• Impact on China-dependent semiconductors and agricultural machinery
• Shift to Mexico/Vietnam to avoid tariffs

---

3. Regulation & Policy Changes

Environmental Regulation

Tighter carbon regulation:

• Beneficiaries: Renewables, EV, clean tech
• Hurt: Oil & gas, coal, airlines, heavy industry

Emissions trading:

• Rising carbon-credit prices → higher costs for high-emission companies

Financial Regulation

Tighter capital regulation:

• Higher bank capital-ratio requirements → pressure on bank profitability
• Larger impact on small and mid-sized banks

Crypto-asset regulation:

• Tighter regulation → hits crypto-related stocks, benefits traditional finance
• Regulatory clarity → can also be received positively by the market

Antitrust

Blocking large M&A:

• Share-price decline of the target companies
• Delay in industry consolidation

Big Tech regulation:

• Business-breakup risk for platform companies
• Benefits to competitors and emerging companies

---

4. Technology Shifts

AI Revolution

Beneficiary sectors:

Hurt sectors:

EV (Electric Vehicle) Adoption

Beneficiaries:

• Lithium, cobalt, nickel related
• EV charging infrastructure
• Utilities (higher demand)

Hurt:

• Legacy auto parts (engines, transmissions)
• Gas stations
• Oil refining

Renewable Energy

When policy support expands:

• Solar/wind related stocks rise
• Utility-scale storage demand

When policy retreats:

• Clean-energy stocks fall
• Capital rotates back to legacy energy stocks

---

5. Commodity Shocks

Crude Oil Price

Spike scenario (supply shock):

• Beneficiaries: Oil majors, shale companies, oilfield services
• Hurt: Airlines, transportation, chemicals, consumer goods

Crash scenario (demand decline):

• Beneficiaries: Airlines, transportation, consumer goods
• Hurt: Energy sector broadly

Thresholds:

• Below $80: Energy stocks soft
• Above $100: Inflation concerns, deteriorating consumer sentiment

Gold

Drivers of an increase:

• Geopolitical risk
• Inflation concerns
• Falling real interest rates
• Weaker USD

Related tickers:

• Gold miners: NEM, GOLD, AEM
• Gold ETFs: GLD, IAU

Copper

Role as an economic indicator (Dr. Copper):

• Rising copper price → economic-expansion signal
• Falling copper price → economic-slowdown signal

Related sectors:

• Mining: FCX, SCCO
• Construction / infrastructure
• EV (copper is a key material)

---

6. Corporate & M&A

Large Acquisition Announcement

Typical pattern:

• Acquired company: +20-40% (premium reflected)
• Acquiring company: -3-10% (dilution / premium concerns)
• Industry peers: +5-15% (speculation as the next acquisition target)

Large Bankruptcy

Systemic-risk concern:

• Spills over to the entire financial sector
• Widening credit spreads

Single-company bankruptcy:

• Benefits competitors (market-share gains)
• Hurts suppliers

Spin-off

Typical pattern:

• Parent company: uncertain in the short term, valued for slimming down in the medium term
• Spin-off company: tends to rise on post-independence growth expectations

---

Usage Notes

1. Past patterns are a reference: Reactions differ depending on the market environment 2. Consider compound factors: Analyze the interaction of multiple factors, not a single event 3. Importance of timing: Reactions change based on how much the market has priced in 4. Check the scale: Impact magnitude differs with the scale of the event 5. Periodic updates: Revisit patterns as market structure changes

Scenario Playbooks

This reference provides templates and best practices for constructing 18-month scenarios. Use it during scenario analysis to produce consistent, high-quality scenarios.

Core Principles of Scenario Construction

1. MECE Principle (Mutually Exclusive, Collectively Exhaustive)

Scenarios should satisfy:

• Mutually exclusive: scenarios do not overlap
• Collectively exhaustive: cover all major possibilities

2. Probability Allocation Guidelines

When an asymmetric allocation is appropriate:

• Bull > Bear: environment with many bullish drivers
• Bear > Bull: environment with many risk factors
• Base > 60%: low-uncertainty situation
• Base < 50%: extremely high-uncertainty situation (even the Base Case is uncertain)

3. Timeline Segmentation

3-phase structure:

• 0-6 months: short-term reaction, initial moves
• 6-12 months: medium-term development, trend formation
• 12-18 months: long-term outcome, new equilibrium

---

Scenario Templates

Base Case Template

### Base Case (XX% probability)

**Summary**:
[Summarize the scenario in 1-2 sentences. Describe the most probable development.]

**Assumptions**:
- [Assumption 1]: [specific condition]
- [Assumption 2]: [specific condition]
- [Assumption 3]: [specific condition]

**Timeline**:

**0-6 months:**
- [Key development 1]
- [Key development 2]
- [Expected market reaction]

**6-12 months:**
- [Medium-term development 1]
- [Medium-term development 2]
- [Trend direction]

**12-18 months:**
- [Long-term outcome 1]
- [New equilibrium state]
- [Structural change (if any)]

**Impact on economic indicators**:
| Indicator | Current | 6-month forecast | 12-month forecast | 18-month forecast |
|-----------|---------|------------------|-------------------|-------------------|
| GDP growth | X% | X% | X% | X% |
| Inflation | X% | X% | X% | X% |
| Policy rate | X% | X% | X% | X% |
| Unemployment | X% | X% | X% | X% |

**Key catalysts**:
- [Factor that supports this scenario 1]
- [Factor that supports this scenario 2]

**Invalidation signals**:
- [Sign this scenario is breaking down 1]
- [Sign this scenario is breaking down 2]

Bull Case Template

### Bull Case (XX% probability)

**Summary**:
[Summarize the optimistic scenario in 1-2 sentences. What kind of upside occurs.]

**Assumptions**:
- [Optimistic assumption 1]: [specific condition]
- [Optimistic assumption 2]: [specific condition]
- [Optimistic assumption 3]: [specific condition]

**Timeline**:

**0-6 months:**
- [Positive development 1]
- [Positive development 2]
- [Expected favorable market reaction]

**6-12 months:**
- [Continuation of the upside trend]
- [Additional positive factors]
- [Improving market sentiment]

**12-18 months:**
- [Outcome of the optimistic scenario]
- [State achieved]
- [Sustainability assessment]

**Impact on economic indicators**:
[Assume figures better than the Base Case]

**Upside catalysts**:
- [Factor that realizes this scenario 1]
- [Factor that realizes this scenario 2]

**Conditions that raise this scenario's probability**:
- [Condition 1]
- [Condition 2]

Bear Case Template

### Bear Case (XX% probability)

**Summary**:
[Summarize the risk scenario in 1-2 sentences. What kind of downside occurs.]

**Assumptions**:
- [Risk assumption 1]: [specific condition]
- [Risk assumption 2]: [specific condition]
- [Risk assumption 3]: [specific condition]

**Timeline**:

**0-6 months:**
- [Negative development 1]
- [Negative development 2]
- [Expected adverse market reaction]

**6-12 months:**
- [Continuation/deepening of the downside trend]
- [Secondary problems surfacing]
- [Deteriorating market sentiment]

**12-18 months:**
- [Outcome of the risk scenario]
- [Worst-case state]
- [Recovery path (if any)]

**Impact on economic indicators**:
[Assume figures worse than the Base Case]

**Downside risk factors**:
- [Factor that triggers this scenario 1]
- [Factor that triggers this scenario 2]

**Conditions that raise this scenario's probability**:
- [Condition 1]
- [Condition 2]

**Risk-mitigating factors**:
- [Factor that may mitigate this scenario 1]
- [Factor that may mitigate this scenario 2]

---

Scenario Playbooks by Event Type

1. Monetary Policy Event (Rate Hike)

Base Case (55%):

• Rate hike implemented as expected
• Market has largely priced it in
• Mild equity dip, slight rise in bond yields

Bull Case (20%):

• Hike smaller than expected
• Dovish forward guidance
• Equity-market rally

Bear Case (25%):

• Hike larger than expected
• Hawkish forward guidance
• Sharp equity selloff, widening credit spreads

2. Geopolitical Event (Conflict Outbreak)

Base Case (50%):

• Limited escalation of the conflict
• Short-term rise in commodity prices
• Situation stabilizes within a few months

Bull Case (15%):

• Early ceasefire / peace agreement
• Commodity prices normalize
• Market recovers early

Bear Case (35%):

• Prolonged / expanded conflict
• Serious disruption of commodity supply
• Accelerating global inflation, recession risk

3. Technology Shift (AI Regulation)

Base Case (50%):

• Gradual introduction of regulation
• Industry self-regulation predominates
• Limited impact on innovation

Bull Case (25%):

• Regulation formulated in a way favorable to the industry
• Regulatory clarity actually accelerates investment
• Entry barriers formed that favor incumbents

Bear Case (25%):

• Strict regulation introduced
• Significant restrictions on AI development
• Decline in US companies' competitiveness

4. Corporate Event (Large M&A)

Base Case (60%):

• Regulatory approval obtained
• Closing on schedule
• Gradual realization of integration synergies

Bull Case (15%):

• Synergies realized beyond expectations
• Integration goes smoothly
• Additional M&A strategy succeeds

Bear Case (25%):

• Blocked by regulators or conditional approval
• Delay / failure of integration
• Synergies not achieved

---

Scenario Quality Checklist

Internal Consistency

• [ ] Are the assumptions of each scenario logically consistent?
• [ ] Is the causality of the timeline development clear?
• [ ] Are the economic-indicator forecasts mutually consistent?

External Validity

• [ ] Is it consistent with past analogous events?
• [ ] Does it appropriately reflect the current market environment?
• [ ] Does it not diverge greatly from expert views?

Practicality

• [ ] Is there enough specificity to be useful for investment decisions?
• [ ] Are monitorable catalysts identified?
• [ ] Are invalidation signals clear?

Comprehensiveness

• [ ] Are the major risk scenarios included?
• [ ] Is the upside possibility appropriately considered?
• [ ] Is there mention of tail risk?

---

Common Mistakes and How to Avoid Them

1. Status-quo bias

Problem: Assigning excessive probability to the Base Case (70%+) Avoid: Recognize that historically the probability of "nothing changes" is low

2. Recency bias

Problem: Overestimating the impact of the most recent event Avoid: Maintain a long-term view, refer to past patterns

3. Confirmation bias

Problem: Adopting only interpretations aligned with the headline Avoid: Deliberately seek out opposing views

4. Excessive precision

Problem: Forecasting figures 18 months out to decimal places Avoid: Acknowledge uncertainty, express as a range

5. Scenario overlap

Problem: Base/Bull/Bear partially overlap Avoid: Clarify the boundary conditions of each scenario

---

Probability Update Guidelines

Probability adjustment when new information arrives:

After adjustment, always re-normalize to 100% total

---

Output Quality Standards

Characteristics of a high-quality scenario: 1. Specificity: not abstract; includes figures, dates, names 2. Logic: clear causality 3. Verifiability: correctness can be judged later 4. Practicality: includes information directly tied to investment decisions 5. Humility: appropriately expresses uncertainty

Sector Sensitivity Matrix

This reference organizes sector-by-sector sensitivity to various event types in matrix form. Use it during scenario analysis to quickly judge which sectors are most likely to be affected.

Legend

Impact:

• ++ : Strong positive impact
• + : Positive impact
• 0 : Neutral / minor impact
• - : Negative impact
• -- : Strong negative impact

Confidence:

• H : High (past patterns are consistent)
• M : Medium (situation-dependent)
• L : Low (high uncertainty)

---

1. Monetary Policy Event Matrices

Rate-Hike Environment

Rate-Cut Environment

---

2. Geopolitical Event Matrices

War / Armed Conflict

Tariffs / Trade Friction (vs. China)

---

3. Regulation & Policy Change Matrices

Tighter Environmental Regulation

Tighter Financial Regulation

Tighter Antitrust

---

4. Technology Shift Matrices

Accelerating AI Revolution

Accelerating EV Adoption

---

5. Commodity Shock Matrices

Crude Oil Price Spike ($100+/bbl)

Crude Oil Price Crash ($50-/bbl)

Gold Price Spike

---

6. Economic Cycle Matrices

Economic Expansion

Economic Recession

---

How to Use

1. Identify the event type: Judge the event category from the headline 2. Refer to the relevant matrix: Select the appropriate matrix above 3. Check impact and confidence: Understand the impact per sector 4. Use representative tickers as a starting point: As the basis for deeper analysis 5. For compound scenarios, refer to multiple matrices: Integrate multiple matrices when several events are involved

Caveats

• Single-stock situation: Sector impact and single-stock impact can differ
• Timing: Distinguish immediate impact from delayed impact
• Scale: Impact magnitude varies with the scale of the event
• Degree of market pricing-in: If the market has already priced it in, the reaction is limited